Abkhazia Georgia

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A map of Russian military districts

Military context of the Belarusian crisis

Russian intervention in Belarus could take many forms: formal assistance granted at the request of the collapsing Lukashenko regime; a stabilization operation amid chaotic conditions or the armed invasion of a new Belarusian state controlled by the opposition. All those options would entail massive economic and political costs for Moscow, which will try to pursue an internal resolution before intervening.

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