al-Qaeda

After Mosul and Raqqa, risks multiply

25.07.2017

As the battle for Mosul concludes, the battle for Raqqa is entering its initial phase. From a military perspective, the fall of these twin bastions of Daesh was never in doubt. But tactical victories can only be turned into long-term strategic gains if a political process is put in place. Otherwise, we will see a “son of Daesh” and worse in Syria and Iraq.

Bernard Siman

ECONOMY

Trump’s options in the Afghan-Pakistan divide

A map showing the Durand Line, the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and areas where the Pashtun population in the region live

13.07.2017

The complicated task of stabilizing Afghanistan is made even more complex by the support Pakistan and other countries give the Taliban. The United States will have to navigate this web of interests and alliances carefully. An increase in American troop levels could deter some of the players in the region from destabilizing the country. For now, that scenario seems likely.

Bernard Siman

ECONOMY

GIS Dossier: Sub-Saharan Africa

05.07.2017

The list of challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa is long and daunting. Political instability and violence have led to immense migration flows that countries on three continents are struggling to contain. These problems have exacerbated weather-related catastrophes like famine, creating a vicious circle. Yet, the region has plenty of potential. Can it overcome its hurdles? This edition of GIS Dossier surveys the predictions from our experts on this troubled region.

GIS Feature

POLITICS

Opinion: Long-simmering tensions over Qatar come to a boil

Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

30.06.2017

Qatar has quarreled with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states before, but this latest flare-up is far more serious. While the cause of the crisis – an allegedly fake news report – seems a flimsy justification for a diplomatic and economic blockade, Doha’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and friendly ties with Iran have put it in this fix. Qatar will have to agree to at least some of the 13 demands made by Saudi Arabia and its allies, and the U.S. will probably help broker a compromise to end the impasse.

Ambassador Zvi Mazel

DEFENSE

State fragility fuels crisis in Central African Republic

French soldiers in Paoua, Central African Republic

17.05.2017

In the Central African Republic, nearly half of the country’s 4.7 million people are in dire need of aid. It is one of the world’s most fragile states, with more than half its territory under the control of rebel groups. The crisis reflects poor governance and widespread violence, but also unfavorable geography. Even under a best-case scenario, it will take decades to build a sovereign and functioning state.

Teresa Nogueira Pinto

POLITICS

Macedonia’s instability has huge implications for the Balkans

Leader of VMRO-DPMNE, former Macedonian Prime Minister Nicola Guevski celebrates his party’s victory in the December 11, 2016 elections.

31.01.2017

A political crisis in Macedonia is turning into a big problem for the Balkans. Economically weak and susceptible to external pressure and internal instability, the country needs strong support. But the United States and European Union may be turning away, leaving a vacuum that can be filled by Russia and China.

Professor Dr. Blerim Reka

POLITICS

Global Outlook 2017: U.S. faces vexing challenges in South Asia

A map of the government-held, Taliban-held and contested areas in Afghanistan

24.01.2017

The Trump administration will face major challenges in South Asia in 2017. The Taliban is likely to begin conducting major attacks, potentially making significant territorial gains. Also, India-Pakistan tensions continue to simmer; another terrorist attack could lead to a full-blown conflict. Up to now, President Trump has not made South Asia a foreign policy focus – but that may change quickly.

Lisa Curtis

DEFENSE

Global Outlook 2017: Iran, Daesh and the Arab wars

A map of the territory controlled by the various factions in Syria

19.01.2017

An arrangement between the U.S. and Russia on the Middle East seems to be the last hope for keeping the region from descending into a large-scale conflict. The two powers will have to find common ground on two main challenges: Daesh and Iran. But even under the best of circumstances, stamping out jihadist terrorism groups is a task that cannot be completed this year.

Ambassador Zvi Mazel

DEFENSE

Social unrest undermines Morocco’s stability

A protest in Rabat, Morocco, after fish seller Mouhcine Fikri was killed.

02.12.2016

Morocco’s elections in October 2016 showed that its democracy is strengthening. But for some, reform has not gone far enough. A fishmonger’s death recently sparked protests that could bring instability similar to that seen in the country’s neighbors in 2011. On top of that, security concerns are increasing. Can Morocco remain North Africa’s success story?

Dr. Jaime Nogueira Pinto

POLITICS

Professor Dr. Amatzia Baram

DEFENSE

After Mosul and Raqqa, risks multiply

Trump’s options in the Afghan-Pakistan divide

GIS Dossier: Sub-Saharan Africa

Opinion: Long-simmering tensions over Qatar come to a boil

State fragility fuels crisis in Central African Republic

Macedonia’s instability has huge implications for the Balkans

Global Outlook 2017: U.S. faces vexing challenges in South Asia

Global Outlook 2017: Iran, Daesh and the Arab wars

Social unrest undermines Morocco’s stability

INFOGRAPHIC: Where the Sunni tribes can help