Alexander Lukashenko
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A closer look at the Eurasian Economic Union
In theory, the Eurasian Economic Union should be an important economic influence globally. Combined, its five members’ GDP outweigh that of Germany. Yet, it has struggled to find relevance, not least because it has not managed to build true economic integration. Much of that has to do with the outsized influence Russia plays in the organization. Can it overcome the hurdles?
Lukashenko’s Belarus in Russia’s embrace
In power since 1994, Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko has proven to be the ultimate political survivor. His latest scandals will sting, but the status quo will remain as long as Russia and the West do not alter their strategies. Russia cannot afford to see Belarus collapse, while the EU remains reluctant to do ...
Lithuania in the limelight
By urging NATO and the European Union to show their support for Belarus, Lithuania is risking Russia’s ire. Military intervention is unlikely but cannot be ruled out, given the Baltic state’s border with the strategic Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. However, the most likely course of action for the Putin administration ...
Military context of the Belarusian crisis
Russian intervention in Belarus could take many forms: formal assistance granted at the request of the collapsing Lukashenko regime; a stabilization operation amid chaotic conditions or the armed invasion of a new Belarusian state controlled by the opposition. All those options would entail massive economic and political costs for Moscow, ...
Scenarios for Belarus
Before the elections, many observers compared the situation in Belarus to the color revolutions in Ukraine or Georgia. But the country did not receive as much support from the West.The most likely scenario is that Russia will keep supporting President Aleksander Lukashenko, provided he assents to stepping down after this ...
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