Alexander Lukashenko
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Lithuania in the limelight
By urging NATO and the European Union to show their support for Belarus, Lithuania is risking Russia’s ire. Military intervention is unlikely but cannot be ruled out, given the Baltic state’s border with the strategic Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. However, the most likely course of action for the Putin administration is to leverage its influence in Lithuanian energy markets.
Scenarios for Belarus
Before the elections, many observers compared the situation in Belarus to the color revolutions in Ukraine or Georgia. But the country did not receive as much support from the West.The most likely scenario is that Russia will keep supporting President Aleksander Lukashenko, provided he assents to stepping down after this ...
Belarus in the crosshairs
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is facing unprecedented turmoil at home. Protracted demonstrations have led to a string of politically motivated arrests. However, trouble is also brewing on the foreign front. The Kremlin appears to be losing patience with the strongman’s trick of playing off Russia against the West and could ...
What Lukashenko learned from Crimea
Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko is still coming to terms with what Russia’s intervention in Ukraine means for his own autocratic rule. Recent events in Armenia show that his overthrow might not occur on the back of Russian tanks, but via a hybridized “color” revolution capitalizing on social discontent. Lukashenko has ...
GIS Dossier: Autumn of the patriarchs
In many parts of the world, the outlook for political stability in 2018 will depend on aging, often long-serving politicians. Some are senescent leaders trying to manage a generational transition, others have caught their second wind and are bracing for a long run. Here is a short list of rulers ...
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