GIS Dossier: Global trade and protectionism
According to the economic law of comparative advantage, the whole world has benefited from the enormous expansion of international trade since 1980. But over the past decade, few countries have acted like they believe it. GIS experts look at the roots and likely future course of protectionism’s global resurgence.
Central America under Trump’s shadow
The Trump administration’s policies will have a huge impact on Central America – even if they are not intended to. A trade dispute with Mexico could end up benefitting the region. But tighter border security measures or cutting of funding for improving democratic institutions will prove disastrous.
Russia’s deeper involvement in Libya changes the game in the Middle East
It seems Western powers have again been caught off guard by Russia’s moves in the Middle East. This time, Moscow is stepping up cooperation with Libya, an old ally. Closer ties with the Tobruk government could give it a pretext to strengthen its presence there, and even potentially to establish military bases as in Syria. That would open a new can of worms for Europe and NATO.
Europe and the potential for a Trump-Putin deal
Given United States President Donald Trump’s praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin, European leaders are worried that a deal to normalize relations between the two countries could be in the works, causing upheaval in decades of value-based Western policies. While there is certainly reason for concern, the obstacles to such a deal being struck are huge.
A new look at the pivot to Asia
U.S. allies in Southeast Asia have been turning toward China for various reasons. President Donald Trump has declared he will take a tough line toward Beijing, while his determination to retreat from the TPP agreement and reduce foreign involvement has aroused worry in the region. The Trump administration will have a difficult time keeping allies in line, but a focus on bilateral trade agreements offers flexibility and new opportunities.
Global Outlook 2017: Merkel and the myth of German hegemony
Among the leaders of the world’s biggest liberal democracies, it seems Angela Merkel is the last woman standing. Some have claimed that will make her the leader of the free world and Germany Europe’s hegemon. Such claims are greatly exaggerated. There will be significant limitations to both Germany and Ms. Merkel’s room for maneuver in Europe and globally in the coming year.
VIDEO: The U.S.-Iran relationship: where do we go from here?
GIS Middle East expert Dr. Amatzia Baram discusses the implications of the West's deal with Tehran on nuclear weapons and Washington's motivations behind it. Will relations between the U.S. and Iran improve? Dr. Baram gives his prediction.
Donald Trump and presidential legacy
Barack Obama’s election eight years ago was met with enthusiasm around the globe. Many people had near Messianic perceptions of him, which he sometimes appeared to buy into himself. Donald Trump is encountering an entirely different type of welcome. But he inherits an extremely difficult legacy – both in foreign and domestic spheres – from his predecessor. It just might require an outsider to address these problems
Obama’s monetary diplomacy
The protectionist views of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump are well known, but there has already been a drift in that direction under the Obama administration. One of its favorite tools has been currency monitoring – a way to strong-arm trading partners into adopting tighter monetary policies.