War in the North? Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Iran
Israel is girding for another war in southern Lebanon. But this time Hezbollah can pound northern and central Israel with up to 1,500 missiles a day – 10 times as many as it launched in the entire 2006 Lebanon war. And the conflict could well spread to Syria and Gaza, and perhaps even to Iraq and the Mediterranean offshore gas fields. As Iran supplies Hezbollah with ever more advanced missile technologies, the window for a preemptive strike by the Israeli Defense Forces is closing.
GIS Dossier: Autumn of the patriarchs
In many parts of the world, the outlook for political stability in 2018 will depend on aging, often long-serving politicians. Some are senescent leaders trying to manage a generational transition, others have caught their second wind and are bracing for a long run. Here is a short list of rulers who are losing their grip, handling tricky successions, or building their legacies with a late burst of vigor. They are a key human element in geopolitics.
Global Outlook 2017: Israel and its neighbors
Concerns about Israel focus on President Donald Trump's explosive proposal to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, which could set off another Intifada in the Occupied Territories. But the bigger danger lies in Syria, especially if President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah decide to strike south. That would put Israel eyeball-to-eyeball with Iran on the Golan Heights, and trigger a wider regional war.
Can Turkey and Israel sustain detente?
Turkey’s mercurial president decided to make up with Israel just as suddenly as when he froze relations back in 2010. That bodes ill for a durable rapprochement, especially in light of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long-standing ties with Hamas. But there are long-term reasons why the deal could work.
Politics, economics still stifle Eastern Mediterranean gas
Since 2009, international interest in the Eastern Mediterranean’s offshore oil and gas resources has followed a cycle from widespread excitement, to a stall in activity, to disappointment and back to excitement again. The Levant Basin has seen several discoveries that could have a big impact on domestic economies. However, unless circumstances locally, regionally a...
Uncertainty ahead for Israeli security in 2016
On the cusp of the new year, looking into 2016 is a daunting task for any Israel analyst trying to gauge what it may bring for the country’s security and foreign relations. From security, to internal politics, to relations with its neighbours and allies, the country faces tremendous uncertainty in the year to come. In th...
India builds on its defence links with Israel
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could add the missing link to bilateral relations with Israel with a high-level visit in 2015. Israel already plays a key role as a supplier of high-tech defence equipment to India. Now that relationship is set to flourish along broader economic lines. NARENDRA Modi will become the fir...
Iran nuclear deal promises brighter future for Middle East
The interim agreement between the P5+1 group of the world’s leading powers and Iran spells hope for a new era of cooperation throughout the wider Middle East. This could also lead to a significant and four-fold increase in trade for the European Union with Iran and a broader agenda for change supported by the West, Russia and China. ...
Politics and the ramifications of Iran’s nuclear deal for Israel and the Middle East
The outcomes of Israel’s elections on March 17, 2015, and negotiations between the six leading world powers and Iran can make differences in the short run and invite more tension or open new options. But in the absence of a ‘military solution’ there will be two nuclear-capable nations in the region. Both will need to prepare for difficult formative stages within a ...
Palestine goes from warfare to law in pursuit of statehood
The President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, had threatened to go to the International Criminal Court over alleged Israeli war crimes, but only as a ‘nuclear-option’. No one expected him to play his bargaining chip. Now he has and the reaction has been fierce - threats to withdraw funds from the court, calls to cut off aid, withholding tax revenue to ...