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Founded by Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

Our mission:Providing basis for decisions

Brazil braces for a rough ride, but its strengths remain

Brasilia, Dec. 15, 2015: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff expresses indignation at Congressional proceedings to impeach her (source: dpa)

General info

Location

Brazil

Date

19 January 2016

Contains

Report Scenarios

Tags

banking budget Congress cost crisis debt decline deficit Dilma Rousseff economics GDP gross domestic product interest rates Joaquim Levy NGOs Petrobras poverty ratio recession unemployment

Author

Carlos Eduardo Lins da Silva

Carlos Eduardo Lins da Silva, special advisor in communication affairs of the Presidency of FAPESP (a Sao Paulo Research Foundation), holds a PhD and a post-doctoral degree in communication obtained from the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil, as well as ...

The drama of Brazil’s immense political and economic crisis has reached a sort of “ground zero” point, from which it can develop in any direction, leading to a positive or very negative outcome for the country.

In early December 2015, Brazil’s Congress unexpectedly and abruptly moved to impeach President Dilma Rousseff. After her allies appealed to the Supreme Court, the process was put on hold until mid-February, as the legislative and judiciary branches went into their usual, year-end recess.

The impeachment appeared to have been an act of revenge by Ms. Rousseff’s nemesis, House Speaker Eduardo Cu...

Contents

Retaliation in kind
Economy, stupids
Dark clouds
Decisive factor
Presidential accountability
Scenarios
2016, short optimistic script
2016, short pessimistic script

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Minister Levy then started to fight for a 1.7 percent primary surplus in the 2016 budget. Again, he met with resistance, this time within the cabinet itself, most of it coming from Planning Minister Nelson Barbosa