The UK is leaving the EU, not Europe
Brexit will offer the European Union and the United Kingdom the chance to put themselves back on track. The UK will no longer be seen as just one of 28 member states, while the EU can reestablish itself as a tool for collective action. However, this outcome will require flexibility from both sides. For now, a “hard Brexit” scenario is unlikely.
GIS Dossier: Global trade and protectionism
According to the economic law of comparative advantage, the whole world has benefited from the enormous expansion of international trade since 1980. But over the past decade, few countries have acted like they believe it. GIS experts look at the roots and likely future course of protectionism’s global resurgence.
Opinion: Britain and Germany – should we expect a Brexit war?
As Europe gears up for Brexit negotiations, the lines in the sand are already being drawn. Germany is bent on making Britain pay a heavy price for leaving the European Union, while the United Kingdom is hoping for a soft divorce. While the German position looks strong on paper, too much hostility could backfire. Tensions between Berlin and London are likely to be short-lived. A compromise will probably be reached after the German elections this year.
Opinion: Why Germany ‘Kant’ be the UK’s perfect Brexit ally
The United Kingdom’s chances for an amicable divorce from the European Union depend above all on reaching an understanding with Germany. But in the Brexit negotiations, German interests will clash with German scruples. The latter may very well prevail.
Frailty, thy name is Europe
The EU is in profound crisis, caused by years of shallow leadership. Only a radical change in its leaders’ performance can salvage the European project now. Managing structural problems instead of resolving them, trying to shame the rebellious public into accepting business as usual and blaming the United States for Europe’s dangerously weak security position is a road to self-destruction.
Roads out of Rome
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker came up with an uninspiring set of scenarios in his latest White Paper. But the debate it kicks off, to be continued at the Rome Summit on March 25, could present a real chance to reorganize the European Union and make it more competitive.
‘Multi-speed’ Europe, a misleading term
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has prepared a white paper that sets out five scenarios for the future of the EU. While we can cheer this open-minded approach and the idea that there are alternatives to the “ever-closer Union,” the EU establishment seems to be building support for the “multi-speed Europe” option. With such a solution, countries that do not want to be left behind would effectively be forced to toe Brussels’ line, especially when it comes to burdensome regulations.
Will the European Union survive until 2025? Three scenarios
The crisis-stricken European Union may disintegrate in a decade, or reinvent and invigorate itself. The most plausible scenario, however, is a pragmatic downsizing: Brussels will abandon its overreaching ambition of ever-closer union and focus on programs that actually benefit EU residents.
After the Brexit vote: a benchmark scenario for Europe (part 2)
There has been much talk but little planning for Europe’s life after Brexit. Yet proposals to make the EU more accountable, competitive and flexible have been on the table for almost a year. This report outlines a compromise scenario for an economically sensible, “soft” Brexit that could provide a broader framework for relations between the EU and its neighbors.
After the Brexit vote: can the EU reform itself? (part 1)
With the United Kingdom on the way out, doubts linger about whether the European Union can fix its problems of a weak democratic mandate and a centralized approach to integration. Implementing the agreement reached last February with David Cameron, designed to address the key concerns of British skeptics, could be a step in the right direction.