Theresa May’s guardedly optimistic Brexit scenario
Under London’s current proposal, the United Kingdom could quit the European Union at midnight on March 30, 2019 largely unscathed, leaving behind a smaller, but cooperatively disposed community on the continent and the outstanding, complex divorce issues for settling later on. But then, there is the “cliff edge” scenario with not such a happy ending.
GIS Dossier: Return of the Daddy State
The aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the 2008 financial crisis have led to calls for a dramatic increase in the powers of government. Even the ubiquity of internet-based technologies and the populist backlash against political establishments have had the paradoxical effect of promoting centralization. Yet in both politics and economics, there is plenty of evidence that state paternalism is the wrong answer.
Protectionism undermines European principles
Emmanuel Macron came to office promising to liberalize the French economy and reduce the role of the state. But his government is already turning protectionist, threatening to “temporarily nationalize” a shipyard. The move undermines European and liberal principles.
Brexit and the sunset of European influence in Asia-Pacific
Though the Asia-Pacific region seems too far away to be affected by Brexit, the UK’s departure from the EU will have a profound impact on the region. While it will reduce the bloc’s significance in the region’s affairs, the UK’s status may suffer as well. Asia-Pacific states will likely look to countries such as Germany to act as a new counterweight to China and the United States.
The UK is leaving the EU, not Europe
Brexit will offer the European Union and the United Kingdom the chance to put themselves back on track. The UK will no longer be seen as just one of 28 member states, while the EU can reestablish itself as a tool for collective action. However, this outcome will require flexibility from both sides. For now, a “hard Brexit” scenario is unlikely.
GIS Dossier: Global trade and protectionism
According to the economic law of comparative advantage, the whole world has benefited from the enormous expansion of international trade since 1980. But over the past decade, few countries have acted like they believe it. GIS experts look at the roots and likely future course of protectionism’s global resurgence.
Opinion: Britain and Germany – should we expect a Brexit war?
As Europe gears up for Brexit negotiations, the lines in the sand are already being drawn. Germany is bent on making Britain pay a heavy price for leaving the European Union, while the United Kingdom is hoping for a soft divorce. While the German position looks strong on paper, too much hostility could backfire. Tensions between Berlin and London are likely to be short-lived. A compromise will probably be reached after the German elections this year.
Opinion: Why Germany ‘Kant’ be the UK’s perfect Brexit ally
The United Kingdom’s chances for an amicable divorce from the European Union depend above all on reaching an understanding with Germany. But in the Brexit negotiations, German interests will clash with German scruples. The latter may very well prevail.