- Central European economies are starting to diverge from other emerging markets
- The EU acts like a "convergence machine" to drive this outperformance
- CEE5 countries can realistically match Spain's achievement of reaching 90% of German GDP
Global growth has been a constant source of disappointment in recent years. Since 2010, the International Monetary Fund has reduced its global forecast in 11 out of 12 forecasting rounds – most recently in mid-April. The IMF consistently erred on the optimistic side because it believed economic growth would return to its historical trend or at least come close to it. The advanced economies have not met this expectation, however, due to their heavy debt burden and feeble productivity gains.