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World race to self-sufficiency in strategic manufacturing
Global value chains have been shrinking for a decade; the pandemic has only accelerated the process. Western countries are now racing to reshore parts of their strategic manufacturing and make supply chains more resilient. China, meanwhile, continues its quest for dominance and competes with the West for access to strategic suppliers.
Systemic competition: China’s challenge to the West in 2021 and beyond
This year marks the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. By its end, Beijing wants to have built a “moderately prosperous society.” In parallel, President Xi Jinping seems ready to embark on an all-out contest between statist China and the liberal Western economies. While the Middle ...
New opportunities 2021: Asia’s push in international trade
The 2020 proportional decline in trade was twice as large as the decline of world GDP, but a strong rebound can be expected and international trade will drive global growth in 2021. The good news is that policymakers have taken steps to undo at least some of the trade restrictions ...
EU-China investment treaty: Small win, big losses
An investment deal between China and the European Union was hurriedly concluded as 2020 was drawing to a close. At a glance, Europe seems to have achieved many of its objectives, like better access to Chinese markets and promises of improving human rights conditions. However, the agreement is not without ...
Fast growth in 2021, but not for everybody
Many forecast that 2021 will be characterized by vigorous growth and that, by the end of the coming year, the world economy will have recovered from the 2020 losses. The author takes a more discriminating view and argues that only a few countries, China among them, will be back on ...
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