China rises

China rises
China’s ascent to peer status with the U.S. is the century’s salient geopolitical fact. Beijing has used its growing power to turn neighbors into dependents and expand overseas. Its Belt and Road Initiative shows long-term vision but has also raised tensions along Asia’s rim. Internally, China faces financial and demographic challenges that will be hard to overcome, even as President Xi consolidates power.

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Economic contributions to the 5G value chain in 2035, by country

U.S.-China 5G battle portends a divided internet

The U.S. and China are engaged in tit-for-tat threats over 5G. The stakes are high, since the technology will shape the future in unpredictable ways, and the competition will determine the technical infrastructure of modern governance. Whichever country gains the upper hand will also gain a geopolitical advantage – but the outcome may be a fracturing of the internet itself into competing spheres of influence.

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