Scenarios for Central and Eastern Europe in a Russia-NATO conflict
Geopolitically, the region between Russia and Western Europe is among the most volatile parts of the globe: in the 20th century alone, it was a major theater for two world wars and the Cold War. As relations between the West and Russia sour, the region may again see its fate decided by outside powers – this time, the triad of the United States, the European Union and Russia.
Trump pushes U.S. defense buildup
The Trump administration has recently announced its budget priorities, and the most eye-catching figure was the $54 billion increase in defense spending, to $603 billion. Though there is wide agreement that the U.S. military is under increasing stress and is becoming less able to defend American interests, the proposal is highly controversial. The most likely scenario, however, is that the end of defense reductions in the U.S. is over.
Europe’s choice: global player or dependence
Europe runs the risk of again being caught in the great tug-of-war between East and West. Its geopolitical imperatives require it to maintain strong ties with the U.S., while talking on a level playing field with Russia and trading freely with Asia. To do so, it must find its identity, establish a credible defense and implement a coordinated foreign policy – all while abstaining from harmonization and encouraging internal competition. Whether it chooses to follow this path will determine its future.
NATO balances east and south
As NATO leaders gather in Warsaw, they must balance a serious threat to the alliance’s eastern flank against multiple and complex challenges in the south. Their task is complicated by Brexit, which weakens the Anglo-American partnership at the heart of NATO. The result may be a bigger security role for the European Union, and especially Germany.
How Brexit transforms European defense
The United Kingdom just opted out of the European Union, not NATO. But its departure will accelerate a drift by the European members of the alliance away from its Atlanticist origins. And according to Jean-Claude Juncker's top defense advisor, this comes with Washington's blessing.
The risk in disrespecting Vlad
Vladimir Putin has made a habit of bullying his neighbors with Russia’s newly modernized nuclear arsenal. The latest target was Romania, where a portion of the U.S. anti-missile shield just went active. Perhaps these threats would be less worrying if Mr. Putin felt someone in Washington was listening.
U.S. is key to managing the Western Pacific military buildup
The most important navies in the Western Pacific are growing in strength. Forces all around the region are improving, but the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy accounts for the lion’s share of new capacity, both in the number of vessels and technological sophistication. How the United States chooses to address this challenge will make the difference between war...
The EU needs a security strategy based on common interests
For several months, the European Union has been at work overhauling its defense and security strategy. During their June 2015 summit in Brussels, EU leaders assigned this task to the community’s chief of diplomacy. The European Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy (EGS) is due to be presented at the EU summit in June 2016....