- China’s demographic pattern is following Japan’s with a 20-year time lag
- Macroeconomic data no longer support the Great Convergence theory that predicted China, India and the United States would crushingly dominate the world’s economy by 2050
- If Japan reforms, it has a chance to emerge as the XXL Switzerland of the East
Until a few years ago, the “Great Convergence” paradigm was widely accepted as the most plausible bird’s eye view of global economic and political development in the 21st century. Macroeconomic data no longer appear to support this concept, but it remains a good departure point for a discussion of how to revive growth, long stunted in Japan and now flagging in China and other parts of the world.