Demographic change stymies growth not just in Japan

Painted heads of bunraku puppets in Chizu, Japan
June 21, 2016: a puppet theater in Chizu, Japan, which has turned to tourism to offset a declining workforce and local industry (source: dpa)
  • China’s demographic pattern is following Japan’s with a 20-year time lag
  • Macroeconomic data no longer support the Great Convergence theory that predicted China, India and the United States would crushingly dominate the world’s economy by 2050
  • If Japan reforms, it has a chance to emerge as the XXL Switzerland of the East

Until a few years ago, the “Great Convergence” paradigm was widely accepted as the most plausible bird’s eye view of global economic and political development in the 21st century. Macroeconomic data no longer appear to support this concept, but it remains a good departure point for a discussion of how to revive growth, long stunted in Japan and now flagging in China and other parts of the world.

Not a subscriber yet?

Subscribe now and get the latest in-depth geopolitical analysis and forecasts from GIS’s unrivaled cadre of experts.

Learn more about our subscription plans.

You can also buy this report for €8.99 Buy

Add your comment