GIS Dossier: Europe as a global player: The Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa
The most important part of Europe’s security perimeter in the 21st century may be its southern rim. The migration crisis of 2015 was only a foretaste of the demographic, economic and political pressures that are building up in the Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa. Yet the approaches tried by European powers in this vital and growing region have generally failed. They need to get it right as new rival enters the neighborhood – China.
The Trump-Kim summit: Japan’s perspective
The effects of the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore in May are still reverberating around the globe, especially in Japan. As the geopolitics in the region shift, it could cause new tensions that the country, with its shrinking population, will be hard-pressed to handle. Its greatest concern is what concessions the Trump administration may be willing to give China for its part in bringing Kim Jong-un to heel, which could have a huge impact on Japan’s security.
The dawn of a new age in Japan
Japan tends to develop in leaps and bounds – and it looks ready to make another such surge. The transformation of life sciences, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, robotics and big data will lead to a new age in the country. It has the political will and fewer of the legal hurdles for scientific research than in the West. And crucially, its rapidly aging and shrinking population will require such innovations.
African countries move toward fiscal consolidation
Stung by falling commodities prices and growing donor fatigue, many African countries are expanding their tax bases. While at first blush this looks like a good move to liberate their economies from aid and resource dependence, it could also be a recipe for reducing investment and tamping down economic growth.
GIS Dossier: How demography shapes geopolitics
Though demographics has always had an important effect on geopolitics, big changes in population structure have become more frequent and had a wider impact as the world has become more globalized. In East Asia, populations are aging, while in Africa they are growing younger. Huge waves of migration are causing political upheaval. In this edition of the GIS Dossier, we review our experts’ analysis of demographic trends across the globe and their predictions for how they could shift geopolitical tides.
GIS Dossier: Shinzo Abe’s Japan
Shinzo Abe is not popular, but this consummate political insider has become just the second prime minister in Japan’s history to win three general elections. He managed this feat by skillfully juggling factions in the dominant Liberal Democratic Party, stirring life into Japan’s stagnant economy, and pledging vigorous leadership in the face of a nuclear-armed Korea. Can Mr. Abe turn around a country widely seen to be in irreversible decline?
Unconventional scenarios for Japan’s demographic future
Recent demographic projections for Japan paint a dark future, with the loss of some 30 percent of the population within the next 50 years. The situation is so grim that unconventional scenarios might offer the only solution.
China’s coming pension crisis
China’s population is aging rapidly, a trend that will put huge strain on its economy and pension system. China is not the only country with this problem, but it is much poorer than many of its Western counterparts facing similar challenges. The government is working on measures to address the problem, but these will ultimately prove to be too little, too late.