diplomacy

Trump-Kim summit game squeezes South Korea’s president

South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the White House, April 2019

13.05.2019

Spare a moment to consider the plight of South Korean President Moon Jae-in. In the three-way negotiation between Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul about denuclearizing the Korean peninsula, Mr. Moon has perhaps the most sensible policy and is certainly the most predictable player. Yet he is entirely overshadowed by his mercurial partners, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Urs Schoettli

POLITICS

Opinion: What kind of Russian meddling?

Russian military parade in Moscow’s Red Square, May 2018

03.05.2019

Russian “meddling” in other countries is so much a part of our political discourse that it has become fodder for jokes. But what is behind this interference, and who is doing the interfering? Visions of a centralized command center in the Kremlin ignore the freestyle nature of Russian politics in the Putin era, where teams of players tussle like bulldogs under a rug. But now the world is the playing field, and spy hysteria may only make a bad situation worse.

Dr. Svyatoslav Kaspe

POLITICS

Opinion: Ukraine gridlocked

Comedian Volodymyr Zelensky winning a public debate with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko

26.04.2019

The evident stalemate in Ukraine is as much in Western policymakers’ heads as on the Donbas battlefront. Since the European Union has framed the conflict in moral terms that do not allow it to admit failure, it must maintain the pretense of success – giving Russia and Ukraine ample leeway to play their own games of deception. Yet the costs of this false equilibrium – to the EU, Russia and Ukraine itself – are too large to be sustained indefinitely.

Professor Stefan Hedlund

DEFENSE

India decides on force to break a pointless cycle

Supporter of India’s government celebrate the air strike against Pakistan

19.03.2019

The latest round of fighting on the India-Pakistan border reveals a changed mood in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to order an air strike deep inside Pakistan in reprisal for a terrorist attack is evidence of a more muscular policy taking shape. If Mr. Modi is reelected in a few months, it can be assumed that India will be brandishing a bigger stick at its Western neighbor.

Pramit Pal Chaudhuri

ECONOMY

The Trump maritime strategy

Three U.S aircraft carriers from the Pacific Fleet participate in naval exercises

07.03.2019

After two decades of engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq, where land and air power ruled supreme, the U.S. Navy is again on the leading edge of American foreign policy. Freedom of Navigation missions and bold forward deployments of carrier task groups are just part of a new policy to challenge expansion by strategic adversaries such as China and Russia. Yet for the Trump maritime strategy to work, it must be sustained by effective communications and diplomacy, and by an accelerated naval construction program.

Captain James E. Fanell

DEFENSE

Filling the void in Libya

28.02.2019

Libya continues to fall apart. Daily life is in a downward spiral, militias run Tripoli like criminal cartels, and as rival governments in Tripolitania and Cyrenaica vie for control, the desert interior is up for grabs. UN mediation has failed to overcome these centrifugal forces, and hopes for U.S. involvement – perhaps the best chance for reunification – were dashed by the troop pullout from Syria. As outside powers circle for advantage, Russia is only too eager to fill the power vacuum.

Dr. Federica Saini Fasanotti

DEFENSE

Opinion: Political implications of terminating the INF Treaty

The atomic bombing of Nagasaki, Japan in August 1945

22.02.2019

President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is one in a series of withdrawals from contractual security arrangements. For the U.S., this step changes little in the bilateral relationship with Russia, but among European policymakers and media it has stirred up outrage. Paradoxically, this comes at a time when nuclear missiles – which are political weapons par excellence – have lost much of their significance in Europe.

Dr. Uwe Nerlich

DEFENSE

2019 Global Outlook: Playing for high stakes in North Korea

North Korea’s Kim Jong-un visits Beijing to meet President Xi Jinping in January 2019

28.01.2019

Less than a year after the Korean Peninsula appeared poised for war, little on the ground has changed. North Korea appears to be forging ahead with its nuclear program. Yet the public perception is that things are moving ahead on the diplomatic front, and there is even a whiff of détente in the air. When dealing with Pyongyang, however, surprises come with the territory.

Urs Schoettli

POLITICS

Japan’s new outreach in Asia

Basaltic cliffs along the coast of Japan

18.01.2019

China’s rise as an economic and military colossus has transformed the geopolitics of East Asia. Its most powerful neighbor, Japan, has embarked on a more self-reliant course, even as it continues to lean heavily on its alliance with the United States. Tokyo is expanding its contacts, both economic and strategic, with Southeast Asia, India and Australia.

Urs Schoettli

POLITICS

2019 Global Outlook: The Fertile Crescent

Syrian government troops escort residents of Idlib Province through a control point

09.01.2019

The single most important development in the Middle East has been the end of Syria’s civil war, which was unequivocally won by the Baath regime. Even the hammer blows of a determined religious opposition could not destroy the post-World War I system that created Syria, Iraq and Jordan as Arab states. But with the announced U.S. withdrawal from Syria and the victory of the Assad regime and its Russian and Iranian sponsors, the way could be cleared for an explosive confrontation with Israel.

Professor Dr. Amatzia Baram

DEFENSE

Trump-Kim summit game squeezes South Korea’s president

Opinion: What kind of Russian meddling?

Opinion: Ukraine gridlocked

India decides on force to break a pointless cycle

The Trump maritime strategy

Filling the void in Libya

Opinion: Political implications of terminating the INF Treaty

2019 Global Outlook: Playing for high stakes in North Korea

Japan’s new outreach in Asia

2019 Global Outlook: The Fertile Crescent