Reports of Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak
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Covid-19’s long-term geopolitical impact
It is clear now that the Covid-19 pandemic will reshape geopolitics in lasting ways. Country size, effective healthcare measures, economic policy and vaccine development are now the crucial factors. China knows this, and is using its early exit from the pandemic’s worst throes to get a leg up over the ...
Relevance beyond the crisis: The deepening geopolitical divide
If the 2008-2009 financial crisis launched China to superpower status, then the 2020-2021 post-coronavirus period may solidify its position. As the West continues to struggle with the fallout of COVID-19, China is recovering and finding ways to strengthen its clout. The question now will be which countries line up behind ...
The Mekong region under the shadow of Chinese dams
Because of rising tensions in “water diplomacy” around the Mekong River, the region could become another geopolitical hotspot along the South China Sea. China’s clutch of hydropower dams control the water flow to downstream countries, leaving them vulnerable to drought and political blackmail. The lack of external major-power involvement from ...
China’s superpower pragmatism in Southeast Asia
Though Washington sees China as trying to supplant the U.S. as the global superpower, what Beijing really wants is to carve out a sphere of influence in Eurasia and parts of Africa. Whether it can attain this role of “junior superpower” will depend greatly on the success of the Belt ...
The U.S. and China: The trade war and the broader confrontation
As the “trade war” between the U.S. and China looks set to last, it is time to ask if the confrontation is more about “war” than “trade.” In fact, China is simply carrying on the ideological battle initiated by the Soviet Union in the 20th century. This time, however, with ...
Thailand searches for a new balance between monarchy and modernity
Thailand has a wealth of geographic, historical and economic advantages, and yet it lags in terms of political liberalization. It is more monarchy than democracy, an arrangement that worked to its advantage during the Cold War but is now holding it back. At issue is whether the country can find ...
Regional shifts are marginalizing ASEAN
In the huge geopolitical shifts happening in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been conspicuously absent. Split over Chinese activity in the South China Sea, the organization is unready to face these new challenges. If ASEAN becomes irrelevant, it will impact the big ...
ASEAN: A nexus of conflict and prosperity
For the first time since the Vietnam War, Southeast Asia has become a cockpit for great-power rivalries. China’s inexorable rise has split the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which had become a regional broker for peace and prosperity. The ASEAN countries have the demographics and infrastructure to leapfrog into ...
