Economic trends
Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Disruptions on Economic trends
Changes in the political landscape
The political changes now becoming evident in most democratic countries are often decried as caused by “populists.” So-called radical movements, however, can also be seen as a response to the failures of self-absorbed political “elites.” Consequently, the shifts they prompt ...
China rises
China’s ascent to peer status with the U.S. is the century’s salient geopolitical fact. Beijing has used its growing power to turn neighbors into dependents and expand overseas. Its Belt and Road Initiative shows long-term vision but has also raised ...
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The U.S.-China trade tug-of-war, status report
U.S. President Trump’s administration may find it possible to clinch the first phase of a comprehensive trade deal with China as a way to harvest the low-hanging fruit. The real challenge will be completing Phase Two, which will cover more contentious issues, especially as the presidential campaign gains speed in 2020.
Opinion: The mysterious case of CEOs turning green
It is unusual when CEOs purport to define their companies’ overarching objectives – that’s the shareholders’ job. Things become even curiouser when top managers team up with an international bureaucracy to call for the imposition of tighter environmental standards on business. Look for mundane motives, like sending out a profit warning ...
Question marks over the ECB’s governance
When Sabine Lautenschlaeger became the fourth representative of Germany on the ECB governing bodies to resign on former President Mario Draghi’s watch, the issues of his legacy and the collegiality in the EU’s central bank have come to the fore. Growing doubts over the bank’s stimulus policies combined with ignoring ...
Focus Germany: Foreign trade – clouds on the horizon
German trade statistics are sagging. Most commentators attribute this phenomenon to the global business cycle. More likely, today’s figures are the outcome of earlier decisions made by German companies to move resources outside of Europe, and they are now developing their products elsewhere. If true, German foreign trade flows will ...
Opinion: Is Cuba entering another ‘Special Period’?
While the regime in Havana has successfully transitioned to a younger team with a new constitution, Cuba’s economic situation looks increasingly dire. Funding and petroleum from its main sponsor, Venezuela, has run dry, and Washington has ratcheted up sanctions. Can the Cuban regime weather the storm again? And if so, ...
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