Economic trends
Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Disruptions on Economic trends
Russia resurgent
Russia’s incursion in Ukraine raised alarm about a new Cold War, deepened with the intervention in Syria and allegations of meddling in U.S. elections. But the Kremlin’s new assertiveness is largely defensive, while Ukraine’s emergence as a nation-state undermines Moscow’s ...
Changes in the political landscape
The political changes now becoming evident in most democratic countries are often decried as caused by “populists.” So-called radical movements, however, can also be seen as a response to the failures of self-absorbed political “elites.” Consequently, the shifts they prompt ...
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The political corruption of monetary policy
The 2008 U.S. housing crash and the European debt crisis led many politicians to question the importance of independent central banks. However, this approach is not without consequences. There are now several patterns of influence on central banks, ranging from direct political meddling to more subtle institutional pressure. Left unchecked, excessive and ineffective monetary policy will progressively
corrupt central bank independence.
Prospects for Latin American economies in 2019
Latin America’s diverse economies are facing a series of common problems in 2019. After a years-long commodities boom, countries that failed to prepare for the current downturn in prices now deal with a loss of revenues and foreign investment. Corruption and quality of life issues have presented other challenges, and ...
The implications of Russia’s agriculture boom
For two decades, oil and gas have been the focus of Russia’s economy. While fossil fuels will retain a key role for the foreseeable future, agriculture is booming and quickly gaining prominence. The Kremlin is touting grain exports as a path for the country to regain superpower status. A close ...
Japan’s mercantilism in the spotlight again
With his focus on the trade dispute with China and several other fronts opened, U.S. President Donald Trump has been lenient in his criticism of Japan’s mercantilism. If he wins a second term in office, however, he may change tack and slap tariffs on, for example, Japanese cars – a ...
Rare earth minerals return to the U.S. security agenda
China has recently hinted that it could use its stranglehold on the production and processing of rare earth elements to strike at the U.S. economy. The Trump administration has put forth several new initiatives for ending the U.S. reliance on rare earth imports from China and building a domestic supply ...
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