Economic trends
Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Disruptions on Economic trends
Changes in the political landscape
The political changes now becoming evident in most democratic countries are often decried as caused by “populists.” So-called radical movements, however, can also be seen as a response to the failures of self-absorbed political “elites.” Consequently, the shifts they prompt ...
China rises
China’s ascent to peer status with the U.S. is the century’s salient geopolitical fact. Beijing has used its growing power to turn neighbors into dependents and expand overseas. Its Belt and Road Initiative shows long-term vision but has also raised ...
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GIS Dossier: Global trade tensions worsen
Nobody is interested in setting off a trade war, but the trade liberalization process has ground to a halt. The U.S. is not the only guilty party: none of the biggest trading nations has abided by the principle of free trade. Also, many smaller countries are free riders on the system. In the longer term, the economic and geopolitical consequences of a punitive U.S. trade regime may prove very bad for the world.
Relevance beyond the crisis: Globalization is not going away
Contrary to the popular narrative, the COVID-19 crisis has not convinced companies that globalization is a bad move. In fact, the lesson of the pandemic is that firms need to broaden their supply chains and diversify their providers. Governments, however, will take advantage of the situation to push nationalization and ...
Zombies and stagflation: Mario Draghi’s crisis prescription
In late March, Mario Draghi broke his post-ECB silence with an article in the Financial Times that set out several recipes for how to address the economic difficulties brought on by measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Essentially calling for a “whatever it takes” part two, he urged central banks ...
As the U.S. ratchets up pressure on China, the trade war may return
The Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China, signed in January shortly before the coronavirus pandemic, ended two years of a disruptive “trade war” between the two countries. As anti-China sentiment in the U.S. grows and the presidential campaign heats up, the deal may prove short-lived.
Sunday Opinion: The art of creating an environment for healthy longevity
Longevity research shows that the building blocks of health are developed early and cultivated throughout the years. Centenarians tend to have a sense of meaning and purpose, and access to resources to overcome challenges. A lucky draw in the genetic pool lottery plays only a secondary role.
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