Economic trends
Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Disruptions on Economic trends
Beyond the 2020 pandemic
The policies used to contain the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic have brought disruption that moved at a speed not seen in decades. As countries implemented measures to bring the disease under control, economies came to a screeching halt and entire sectors ...
Expanding state
A trend toward increased government influence in economies and personal life is curbing growth, and freedom, in many Western countries. The outsized role of government results in misplaced incentives, overregulation – which restrains markets and competition – and irresponsible budgetary ...
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Restarting economies: Benefits of the bottom-up approach
Restarting an economy is much more difficult and complicated than shutting one down. So far, countries that have used a bottom-up approach, where businesses are allowed to decide for themselves how to meet health requirements, are faring better than those trying to micromanage the reopening from the top down. The latter dulls innovativeness while the former reinvigorates businesses and makes them more agile.
The U.S. mulls more Covid-19 bailouts for states
As parts of the U.S. government wrangle over another round of Covid-19 relief, one of the thorniest issues is whether to offer more aid to states and local governments. What has become clear, however, is that the funds already doled out should have easily covered the shortfalls in tax revenue ...
The Fed and ECB: Average inflation targeting for two
Central banks have long maintained that price stability means 2 percent inflation. Now we hear from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that it actually means “average” 2 percent inflation. This seemingly small change in the banks’ mission aims to contain and sustain public debt, not inflation.
Portugal is key to China’s Euro-African strategy
Like a white knight, China stepped in after Portugal’s 2011 bankruptcy with billions of dollars in investment. After centuries of trade and cultural exchange, it helped the relationship between the two countries flourish. Now China sees Portugal as a crucial cog in its strategy to exert influence and expand trade ...
The German economic policy agenda for Europe
The German presidency of the European Union is likely to have a mixed legacy. On one hand, the financial packages agreed should be considered a French-German political success. On the other, the fiscal consequences of the new measures will allow the European Union to raise debt on an unprecedented scale, ...
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