Economic trends
Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Disruptions on Economic trends
Europe adrift
Brexit is a symptom of the European Union’s internal disarray. In quick succession, the debt crisis, the Ukraine crisis and the migration crisis all challenged centralist visions of ever-deeper integration and soft-power expansion. The political mainstream’s abandonment of traditional values ...
Expanding state
A trend toward increased government influence in economies and personal life is curbing growth, and freedom, in many Western countries. The outsized role of government results in misplaced incentives, overregulation – which restrains markets and competition – and irresponsible budgetary ...
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Leadership Challenges 2020: European Central Bank torn between policy and politics
With the governing body of the European Central Bank bitterly divided over monetary policy at the times of political pressure and economic uncertainty, new President Christine Lagarde faces an extraordinary challenge of putting Europe’s most important financial and regulatory institution back on an even keel.
Germany: The exhausted man of Europe?
Formerly Europe’s growth engine, the German economy is now lagging behind other eurozone countries, and could potentially affect growth in the entire region. This poor performance is partly caused by the looming threats of U.S. tariffs and a disorderly Brexit. However, systemic problems, like a lack of technological innovation in ...
The U.S.-China trade tug-of-war, status report
U.S. President Trump’s administration may find it possible to clinch the first phase of a comprehensive trade deal with China as a way to harvest the low-hanging fruit. The real challenge will be completing Phase Two, which will cover more contentious issues, especially as the presidential campaign gains speed in ...
Taxing the digital economy
An ongoing international effort to rewrite the global tax rules for the digital economy would be a dramatic shift with potentially damaging consequences. Fear of countries unilaterally levying their own digital taxes has led to an alternative at the OECD, motivated by both fiscal and political factors. The new proposal would abandon the ...
Opinion: The mysterious case of CEOs turning green
It is unusual when CEOs purport to define their companies’ overarching objectives – that’s the shareholders’ job. Things become even curiouser when top managers team up with an international bureaucracy to call for the imposition of tighter environmental standards on business. Look for mundane motives, like sending out a profit warning ...
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