Economic trends
Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Disruptions on Economic trends
Expanding state
A trend toward increased government influence in economies and personal life is curbing growth, and freedom, in many Western countries. The outsized role of government results in misplaced incentives, overregulation – which restrains markets and competition – and irresponsible budgetary ...
Beyond the 2020 pandemic
The policies used to contain the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic have brought disruption that moved at a speed not seen in decades. As countries implemented measures to bring the disease under control, economies came to a screeching halt and entire sectors ...
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American financial markets and the specter of inflation
The policies of easy money, unlimited public indebtedness and indiscriminate subsidies make fertile ground for inflation. Are the jittery financial markets signaling that the U.S. and several other Western economies are approaching the end of the long free ride – profligacy with neither reimbursements nor inflation? And what if that end happens sooner rather than later?
The hidden repercussions of public debt in the West
Europe and the U.S. share a common commitment to monetization: their central banks buy much of the debt issued by the government. However, while the share of European bonds in the hands of non-European investors is limited, the portion of U.S. Treasuries held abroad is significant. GIS economic expert Enrico ...
Covid-19 and Leviathan – the German case
Large parts of the world are still in the grip of severe economic and health crises. Many hope that, with effective vaccines, both issues will abate. But there is a serious risk that the pandemic will have brought about lasting changes in governance. In Germany, the level of government intervention ...
The ‘Great Reset’: Prospects and risks
The “Great Reset,” a blueprint of wide-ranging changes meant to lead to a greener and fairer society, is gaining momentum. It proposes an ambitious redesign of today’s economic system, in which civil society would hold the business sector accountable. However, to accomplish such aims would require several policies that could ...
New Opportunities 2021: India plans reforms shielded by robust economic growth
India will rely on targeted supply-side spending to help resurrect the country’s Covid-battered growth. Narendra Modi’s government also hopes to implement critical but long-delayed structural reforms that could become possible if economic recovery is as strong as expected. The plan hinges on a stretch goal: exceeding 14 percent nominal GDP ...
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