Economic trends
Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Disruptions on Economic trends
Expanding state
A trend toward increased government influence in economies and personal life is curbing growth, and freedom, in many Western countries. The outsized role of government results in misplaced incentives, overregulation – which restrains markets and competition – and irresponsible budgetary ...
China rises
China’s ascent to peer status with the U.S. is the century’s salient geopolitical fact. Beijing has used its growing power to turn neighbors into dependents and expand overseas. Its Belt and Road Initiative shows long-term vision but has also raised ...
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Covid-19, the ‘white knight’ for irresponsible policies
Though a quick injection of funds was necessary to keep businesses running and to avoid suffering, governments have taken the crisis brought on by Covid-19 as an opportunity to further increase their grip on economies. The enormous amounts of spending are financed through money creation. The result of such processes can only be inflation or other financial difficulties.
EU-China investment treaty: Small win, big losses
An investment deal between China and the European Union was hurriedly concluded as 2020 was drawing to a close. At a glance, Europe seems to have achieved many of its objectives, like better access to Chinese markets and promises of improving human rights conditions. However, the agreement is not without ...
New Opportunities 2021: The ECB and bringing financial markets down to earth
The Covid-19 pandemic has capped a decade of economic crises that the European Central Bank has had to deal with. The bank’s tools to keep countries’ finances afloat and investors’ confidence solid have been unprecedented. Weaning them off low interest rates, financial injections and high debt will be its next ...
New economic deals and their geopolitical implications for Europe
The EU has agreed on trade investment deals with the U.K. and China, while African countries launched an enormous free-trade zone. While each of these developments comes with some risks, they also offer opportunities for Europe to increase its global competitiveness. But it must remain both vigilant and open.
Europe’s risky recovery funds
Europe is responding to the Covid-19 crisis with gigantic spending programs meant to shore up struggling economies. While financial support makes sense, the EU's history of doling out funds shows these initiatives often lead to fraud, corruption and market distortion. Recent reforms may not be enough to prevent a repeat ...
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