Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Reforming the African Union
Bucking the world trend, Africa in 2018 was marked by important advances toward free movement, free trade and closer cooperation between states. The main advances were on the economic front, with the agreement to create a Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA). While trade liberalization has the potential to be transformative for Africa, disparate stages of development, protectionist impulses and political tensions may prevent meaningful advances.
2019 Global Outlook: Economic reform in France
Another year, another missed opportunity for fiscal reform in France. Like his predecessors, President Emmanuel Macron has ended up mostly raising taxes instead of decreasing the size of government and reducing expenditures. The “national dialogue” to come following the Yellow Vest protests could bring better democratic representation – and with it, more economically responsible governance. But entrenched interests will put up stiff opposition.
Opinion: Nicaragua’s sad and costly ‘stabilization’
Nine months since protests against worsening living conditions in Latin America’s second-poorest country began, the Nicaraguan opposition is being terrorized and is less able to stage anti-government rallies. However, President Daniel Ortega’s prospects for hanging on to power are also uncertain: his government has few friends and the country’s economic difficulties are mounting.
The U.S. and Canada: chilly relations won’t sever the ties that bind
President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have a contentious relationship. Yet the economic, security and administrative ties that bind the United States and Canada together are far stronger than any hostility between the two countries’ leaders. Though differences in defense policy will exacerbate tensions over the next few years, trade will strengthen their bonds.
Opinion: India nudges China toward Belt and Road changes
India has long warned of the strategic dangers posed by China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Today, more and more countries are voicing their suspicions about the BRI’s potential effects. The project also faces difficulties due to financial problems within China. Beijing seems to be recasting the BRI as a smaller, more open project. India and many other countries remain wary.
German growth sputters: Should Europe brace for trouble?
In 2018, Germany’s growth dipped. Europe’s economic powerhouse is likely to continue sputtering in 2019 and beyond. Too many European companies have become exceedingly dependent on the health of the German economy and relatively few seem capable of restructuring their production and marketing techniques to succeed on a global scale. The German slowdown will soon be followed by other disappointing figures on the continental scale.
U.S. interest rates: Where will they take us?
U.S. President Donald Trump worries that the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates too quickly. In fact, the Fed has engaged in only moderate tightening so far. By mid-2019, it is likely to end the cycle and hold rates steady, since the U.S. central bank is probably focusing on restricting the money supply rather than reaching an interest rate target. At that point, Mr. Trump will no longer be able to blame the Fed for any fiscal trouble and will have to implement reforms if he wants to spur growth.
GIS Dossier: Japan’s search for an energy strategy after Fukushima
Since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident, Japan has sharply decreased its reliance on nuclear energy. Following years of deliberations weighing nuclear’s inherent risks against the expense of energy imports and climate protection obligations, the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has decided that by 2050, about one-fifth of the country’s power will be coming from strictly regulated nuclear facilities.
Vocational lessons from Germany and France
Germany is praised as a model of vocational training, with youth unemployment of just over 6 percent. France, where 22 percent of young people don’t have jobs, has long known that its own vocational education system needs fixing. A comparison of how these two great European economies prepare pupils to become future employees may provide a useful guide for other countries.
China’s threat to Russia’s Far East: Real or perceived?
The vulnerability of Russia’s Far Eastern and Siberian regions to Chinese expansion has become a truism. Yet most Russians seem to favor closer ties with China, and bilateral relations may be at their best in history, without a trace of military or political tension. There are also few signs of Chinese economic penetration, at least on a level that exceeds Japan’s or South Korea’s. Migration pressure from China into the underpopulated Russian north may be the hollowest of these popular myths.