Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Colombia finds peace brings burdens
Fresh from winning a Nobel Peace Prize, Colombia's President Juan Manuel Santos must find a way to implement the complicated peace agreement that ended a 40-year civil war. Battling criminal gangs, restoring land to displaced people, and absorbing tens of thousands of guerrilla fighters back into society will be a difficult task. Coca and corruption remain huge problems, and Mr. Santos’ ruling party must fend off a powerful adversary in Alvaro Uribe, an opponent of the peace deal who will challenge in next year’s elections.
GIS Dossier: Mexico
Mexico’s relationship with the United States was driving change in the country long before it became the focus of President Donald Trump. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) dramatically altered its economy, allowing it to become a key provider of manufacturing and agricultural goods to the U.S. But Mexico is also a gateway for drug trafficking to its northern neighbor, fueling corruption, organized crime and widespread violence. The latest GIS Dossier surveys the analyses and predictions from our experts on this critical Latin American country.
China is playing for keeps in Southeast Asia
In addition to becoming a prime global economic power, China is striving to become the hegemon in Southeast Asia. Expansionist policies in the China Seas are crucial to this design and Beijing is not going to back off. Neither its neighbors in the region, nor the rules of international law, nor the Western powers appear to be in a position to prevent the Middle Kingdom from fulfilling its ambition.
The Federal Reserve’s exit from quantitative easing
The question is not whether but when the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to shrink its bloated balance sheet. Just as quantitative easing was a departure from conventional monetary policy, its withdrawal will be a massive economic experiment. Unintended consequences are to be expected.
Opinion: Can Emmanuel Macron change France?
After winning France’s presidency, the easy part is over for Emmanuel Macron. Now he must shift from faux outsider to the country’s first real reformer in decades. To succeed, he will need to take on a political establishment only too eager to jump on his bandwagon.
The risks of German unilateralism on Nord Stream 2
Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the most controversial energy project in Europe, is putting strain on Germany’s relationship with other European Union members. Berlin’s support of the project at the expense of other partners could deepen rifts in the EU and lead to a renationalization of energy policies, especially in Central and Eastern Europe.
GIS Dossier: Global trade and protectionism
According to the economic law of comparative advantage, the whole world has benefited from the enormous expansion of international trade since 1980. But over the past decade, few countries have acted like they believe it. GIS experts look at the roots and likely future course of protectionism’s global resurgence.
Will South Africa’s president survive the latest political storm?
South African President Jacob Zuma’s ill-advised government reshuffle and influence peddling scandals have alarmed financial markets, angered the opposition and put the country’s political system to its hardest test in decades. Even if Mr. Zuma manages to weather the crisis, he will emerge from it battered and at the mercy of his rivals within the ruling National African Congress.
China and the power of the port
China’s growing naval capabilities have gained a lot of attention, but it is also making huge investments in strategically crucial ports around the globe. These will bolster its economic influence, energy security as well as its military objectives. The arrival of a new power in congested geopolitical choke points will require skillful diplomacy.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces long-term effects of famine
A complex web of factors has caused varying degrees of food crisis across sub-Saharan Africa. With Western donor countries focused on internal problems, the disaster shows no signs of abating – even in the long term – bringing with it a vicious circle of displacement, state instability and violence.