Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
African migration and the EU’s response
Migration from Africa to Europe is here to stay. Though the EU has undertaken many measures to stem the tide, demographic and economic realities ensure that those measures will be insufficient. African economies cannot absorb their growing workforce, and in fact benefit from diasporas in Europe. Putting up fences will only make the problem worse.
China won’t save global climate protection policies
China has made big strides in greening its energy sector. But while some hope this means the country can become a new leader in the fight against global climate change, Beijing’s goals are different. The moves it is making now are aimed at putting China in an advantageous geopolitical position, especially in terms of trade. Moreover, its momentum on the green energy front may not be sustainable.
Opinion: In Belarus, the master tactician counts on luck
In recent weeks, open protests have been held in Minsk and Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko has met with a member of the independent media. But Belarus’s authoritarian leader has not changed his tune. Instead, he is putting on a show in hopes of gaining much-needed funding from the West now that Russia has turned off the taps. The survival of his regime depends on this gambit.
China’s coming pension crisis
China’s population is aging rapidly, a trend that will put huge strain on its economy and pension system. China is not the only country with this problem, but it is much poorer than many of its Western counterparts facing similar challenges. The government is working on measures to address the problem, but these will ultimately prove to be too little, too late.
GIS Opinion: Automation, innovation and the arrogance of the elite
The idea of a guaranteed basic income has gained in popularity, with even Bill Gates proposing that such a measure could be funded through a tax on robots. These ideas are misguided: people will be able to adapt to change. And taxing innovation will only slow it down.
Asian powers ponder options as America turns inward
With internationalism on the retreat in the United States and Europe, Asia’s two biggest powers find themselves on the spot. Both China and India have spoken in defense of globalization and a multilateral, rules-based order. But neither appears ready to fill the vacuum left by receding U.S. power.
Angola: leadership change and the risks ahead
It is now certain that Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos will not run in this year’s elections. The transition of power will offer the country a chance to begin to reform kleptocratic state institutions and address huge social and economic crises. The question is how much support dos Santos and his supporters will give the new regime.
The greening of China’s auto industry
Chinese car ownership and production have shot up spectacularly in recent years. The country has joined the push for driverless electric cars as part of an environmental strategy that also stresses greatly expanded public transport. Depending on which strategy Beijing selects, carmakers could be headed for boom years or hard times.
Central Europe will go through stress tests in 2017
As the European Union is trying to reinvent itself and the United States considers recasting its global role, the Central European nations see no obvious path to follow. The relatively prosperous region faces tests of political and economic maturity that go beyond anything it has experienced since the fall of the Iron Curtain.
Opinion: The promises and perils of basic income
Basic income has been touted as a libertarian answer to the bloated welfare state. With a pedigree that goes back to Milton Friedman, it has proved attractive to free marketers as well as leftists. But it could also prove an immense threat to personal freedom.