Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Which Fed monetary policy ‘normalization?’
Should policies centered on more broadly defined money supply replace central bankers’ traditional preoccupation with interest and inflation rates? Is there a way to tame overregulation in the financial sector while making it more stable, more durable and more squarely based on entrepreneurial responsibility? Such changes may be possible – if a regulatory paradigm shift takes place.
India readies to face Trump’s trade ire
As the U.S.-China trade dispute drags on, Washington is gearing up to turn the screws on another trade partner: India. Though the countries are allies, U.S. officials chafe at India’s protectionist policies. Sorting out this imbroglio will be among the Indian government’s top priorities – an escalatory tariff war could cripple the broader relationship.
Opinion: Panama, China and the Canal
Panama has become a big focus for China – the two countries signed 19 cooperation agreements at the end of last year. For Panama, the partnership is an attempt to revive its economy. For China, it is a chance to gain influence over the crucial Panama Canal. The question is how Panama’s new government will balance its appetite for Chinese investment with its need to maintain close ties with the United States.
What’s wrong with the renminbi exchange rate?
Prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal now seem to be hanging by a thread. Even before the most recent disagreement, however, the Trump administration had already begun drawing attention to a new question: whether China had been engaging in protectionism by manipulating its currency. But the administration’s argument reveals confused ideas about what exactly it wants: a dominant role for the dollar as an international reserve currency or an appreciated renminbi to please American producers.
Mozambique: The biggest corruption case in Africa
A $2 billion corruption scandal continues to upend the political and economic landscape in Mozambique. Manuel Chang, the former finance minister, has been arrested by U.S. authorities along with several co-conspirators. His legal fate, which now hangs in the balance in South Africa, will have major repercussions in his home country. Extradition to the U.S. could implicate other Mozambican officials and help turn back on the flow of international aid and investment.
Opinion: The primacy of politics is a dangerous dogma
Even after the fall of Communism, the vision of a planned and controlled society is alive and well. By putting politics first, however, the idea that human affairs must be managed centrally and bureaucratically necessarily limits individual rights and freedom of choice. In the end, it simply substitutes tyranny for liberty.
GIS Dossier: The shale gas revolution
Early in this century, the U.S. unexpectedly moved from being a major natural gas importer to a significant exporter and changed its energy consumption to a more environment-friendly mix. It all happened due to its development of shale gas production. The world’s two other major gas markets – Europe and Asia – have experienced significant adjustments as well.
The security risks of 5G
The fifth generation of cellular wireless technology, or 5G, will both connect the world like never before and present serious security vulnerabilities. At the same time, Chinese presence in telecommunications sectors across the world is growing. The U.S. is concerned China could gain access to sensitive data. What recourse will Washington and its allies take?
Congress uses its prerogatives to shape Asia policy
Most analysis of U.S. foreign policy focuses on the executive branch. That might make sense when the same party controls the White House and Congress, but does not apply after the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives this year. In fact, U.S. lawmakers have been taking a more active role in shaping the U.S. approach to the Indo-Pacific region for several years, most notably on policies toward China, human rights, trade and North Korea.
China’s careful new focus on Latin America
Just a few years ago, China was going all-in in Latin America, making huge investments and cozying up to governments that did not get along with Washington. Yet instability in Venezuela and a new government in Ecuador have exposed Beijing to greater risk. While China is still deepening ties with the region, it has slowed down and changed tack, focusing only on investments that are a crucial strategic interest.