Growth, recessions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, currencies and global business deals. GIS experts provide forecasts and potential scenarios for all of the economic trends that shape geopolitics.
Opinion: The United States should rein in the global tax bureaucrats
President Donald Trump was right to disrupt the G7’s efforts to promote “fair, progressive, effective and efficient tax systems.” The goal may seem innocuous, but it is quite the opposite – favoring large, intrusive governments at the expense of individual economic freedom. One of the most damaging proposals to create a global tax bureaucracy is the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project – a pet scheme of the OECD.
Weighing the consequences of regulating internet giants
The United States stands at a regulatory crossroads as Congress debates whether to adopt European-style controls over the use of online personal data – or trust that Facebook, Google, and the like will respond voluntarily (and more efficiently than government) to their customers’ diverse and ever-changing privacy preferences. The wrong decision will secure the market dominance of the current reigning platforms and stifle internet innovation for years to come.
The growing importance of raw material supplies
As new technologies grow in popularity, rare earths and other critical raw materials like lithium and cobalt are becoming crucial to the global economy. But their production is often concentrated in one or two countries, raising the risk that supply could be cut off suddenly. Perhaps most worrisome, China has a stranglehold on many of these materials and their supply chains.
Opinion: In Nicaragua, the opposition must unite to oust Ortega
Since April, Nicaraguans have been protesting in the streets for an end to the regime of President Daniel Ortega. One of the original Sandinista leaders who brought down the Somoza family dictatorship 40 years ago, Mr. Ortega himself now faces accusations of authoritarianism. He is losing support, but unless opposition groups unify, Nicaragua’s leader could hold on for months.
GIS Dossier: Turkey and the Middle East
Ankara is still groping for the right policy mix in dealing with complex challenges to Turkey’s vital interests in the Middle East, North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea region. A paradigm change, however, diverting its geopolitical attention away from Europe and NATO and toward its historic neighborhood, is already evident.
ZTE and the new era of distrust between China and the West
When the U.S. slapped sanctions on Chinese telecoms equipment maker ZTE, it was a huge issue in China, and finding a solution rose to the top of the agenda for the trade talks between Washington and Beijing. But the ZTE case is just the beginning of an uncomfortable race. A technologically competitive China with an authoritarian system is here to stay. The West will have to find a way to deal with the challenge.
Spain and Morocco: trouble or potential?
The burden of controlling irregular immigration, terrorism and drug smuggling has fallen disproportionately on the European Union’s southern members, including Spain. Ensuring stability on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar, one of the world’s key waterways, is particularly tricky. If the new government in Madrid can’t find ways to work more closely with Morocco, the problems both countries are facing could get worse.
Opinion: The European Union and the true meaning of liberalism
The conservative-leaning EU governments in Central Europe have been bombarded with ideological accusations from “liberal” capitals farther west, but the Union’s truly dangerous division is between responsible and irresponsible approaches to governance and fiscal policies among the member states. A common finance ministry and money transfers would not fix this fundamental problem.
Congress balks at needed revamp of infrastructure system
President Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion plan to rebuild U.S. infrastructure is grand in ambition, bold on reform and going nowhere at present. But federal data do not support the notion that the U.S. is suffering an infrastructure crisis. Instead, analysts say, the problem is excessive regulatory barriers and a flawed funding system that favors “shiny objects” instead of mundane but essential maintenance.
In Western capitals, shifting attitudes on China
Washington and Europe’s major capitals are taking a more critical view of China, and concern about the implications of Chinese investment is on the rise. The question is whether these governments can align their policies to formulate a coordinated response to the challenges posed by China’s rise. The international rules-based order is at stake.