Ecuador: Political instability makes a comeback

Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa celebrates registration of ruling party candidate to succeed him – Lenin Moreno
Quito, Nov. 16, 2016: Lenin Moreno (L) will try to fill the big shoes of Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa (C) and keep the ruling Alianza PAIS party afloat (source: dpa)
  • A weak ruling party and divided opposition leave Ecuador’s presidential race wide open
  • The country’s fiscal and economic problems are not susceptible to a quick fix
  • The constitution’s “mutual death” clause makes changes of government more likely

Ecuador is in a holding pattern as it gears up for the February 2017 general elections and its first new president in a decade. After speculation that he might lobby for a constitutional amendment to run for a fourth term, President Rafael Correa has decided to sit this one out. That leaves the presidency up for grabs and his ruling Alianza PAIS (AP) movement increasingly exposed.

Not only does the AP appear destined to lose its commanding legislative majority (100 of 137 seats), but the new president will have to confront a stagnant economy staggering under a heavy debt burden. That could signal a return to the political instability that has plagued the country for much of the past half century.

Not a subscriber yet?

Subscribe now and get the latest in-depth geopolitical analysis and forecasts from GIS’s unrivaled cadre of experts.

Learn more about our subscription plans.

You can also buy this report for €8.99 Buy

Add your comment