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Nearly 20 years after its historic default, Argentina is still trying to climb back to economic equilibrium. Years of corruption and mismanagement frittered away profits from natural resource exports, while a “gradualist” approach to reform still ended in Latin America’s largest-ever bailout from the IMF. This GIS Dossier reviews our predictions and analysis for one of South America’s largest countries, trying to regain economic stability and influence on the international scene.
Slow at first to pick up on the disruptive nature of battery technology, Europe is now aiming to give the industry a boost. The U.S. and Asia, especially, have a head start. The stakes are high: if Europe loses out, not only could it suffer economically, it could also lose geopolitical influence to China.
Dr. Frank Umbach
Dr. Carole Nakhle
Venezuela stands out among oil producing countries for its contradictions. Though it sits on the world’s largest proven oil reserves, it is not even among the top 10 producers. It has more than a century of experience with the oil industry, yet in recent years it has become a textbook example of the oil curse. It was a key player in the establishment of OPEC, but today it has little influence within the organization. Once an industry leader, it now holds many lessons for other governments on how not to run their oil sectors. In a nutshell, Venezuela has become a sad story of how bad policies and shortsighted governments can squander the family silver.
With a key contract expiring next year, Ukraine’s role in transmitting Russian gas to Europe is uncertain. The planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline threatens to circumvent Ukraine, which has offered lowered gas transit rates to Gazprom if it scraps the new project and allows other exporters to pass through the country. Russia is uninterested in such a deal, but rising forecasts of European gas demand may mean that the Kremlin must continue to rely on Ukraine or find other options.
Dr. Joseph S. Tulchin
Teresa Nogueira Pinto