Enrique Pena Nieto
The U.S. and Mexico go from pugilism to partnership
Despite confrontational rhetoric from the leaders of both countries, the U.S. and Mexico have plenty of reason to work together. Certainly, U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador have some contrasting views on bilateral issues, but both have signaled a willingness to collaborate on priorities from trade to drug trafficking. Appearances aside, cooperation may even flourish over the next two years.
Corruption in Latin America
The Odebrecht scandal, which started off as the Petrobras scandal in Brazil, has sent ripple effects throughout Latin America. It has brought down some regimes and even landed powerful leaders in jail. Perhaps the most important result is voters’ distrust of the traditional political forces. Unsurprisingly, parties in power are set to lose several elections, and in some countries, “outsider” candidates claiming to clean up corruption are leading in the polls.
In Mexico, disappointment with Pena Nieto fuels a desire for change
Mexicans seem set to vote for change in their country’s July presidential election, with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador far ahead in the polls. The ruling party’s candidate is a distant third, and that reflects widespread disappointment in the current administration of President Enrique Pena Nieto. The government has notched up several successes in its reforms, but positive change is coming slowly, while a rise in violence and corruption have angered ordinary citizens.
Mexico’s political system faces a defining moment
Less than a year ahead of a presidential election, Mexicans have lost faith in the political establishment. Enter Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who promises to end corruption and crony capitalism. He is leading the polls, but his unpredictability and criticism of free markets has business leaders spooked. The main parties will probably cooperate to keep him out of office – but can they clean up their act?
Mexico’s future in the balance
Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto has astutely managed the threats to his country posed by the new administration in Washington. Even so, the progress that he has made on key domestic fronts may prove too modest to defeat the left-wing challenge from Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador during next year’s elections.
Outlook improves for Latin American economies
The economic news coming out of Latin America is finally somewhat positive. Stagnation seems to be turning into growth. However, most of this is due to a recovery in commodity prices. Underlying structural problems, especially inequality, persist. Sustainable economic growth in the coming years will require smart domestic policy choices and lowering barriers to intra-regional trade.
GIS Dossier: Mexico
Mexico’s relationship with the United States was driving change in the country long before it became the focus of President Donald Trump. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) dramatically altered its economy, allowing it to become a key provider of manufacturing and agricultural goods to the U.S. But Mexico is also a gateway for drug trafficking to its northern neighbor, fueling corruption, organized crime and widespread violence. The latest GIS Dossier surveys the analyses and predictions from our experts on this critical Latin American country.
Progress and disillusionment in Mexico
The advent of Donald Trump has not come at a good time for Mexico. After a fast start, the reform-minded government of President Enrique Pena Nieto has bogged down in corruption scandals and a stagnant economy. But tensions with the U.S. may also create opportunities for Mr. Nieto, if he is skillful enough to use them.
President Trump’s impact on Latin America
We do not know how much Donald Trump does not know about Latin America. If he keeps his campaign promises, the U.S. economy could suffer as much as Mexico’s or Brazil’s, and illegal immigration could get worse. A lot will depend on the new president’s learning curve.
Mexico’s energy reforms and production outlook
Faced with output declines and the shale revolution, Mexico had little choice but to reopen its oil and gas industry to foreign investors. The early results have been promising, but President Enrique Pena Nieto’s energy reforms are not out of the woods yet.