Theresa May’s guardedly optimistic Brexit scenario
Under London’s current proposal, the United Kingdom could quit the European Union at midnight on March 30, 2019 largely unscathed, leaving behind a smaller, but cooperatively disposed community on the continent and the outstanding, complex divorce issues for settling later on. But then, there is the “cliff edge” scenario with not such a happy ending.
GIS Dossier: Europe’s migration impasse
The steady flow of migrants from the Middle East and Africa suddenly exploded in 2015 into the greatest crisis of its kind in Europe since World War II. How this happened and what the EU and national governments ought to do about it is examined in this survey of work by GIS experts.
European elections – expect the unexpected
European governments and leaders in Brussels would be wise to brace for political shocks in this year’s elections. This is a moment in history when polls tend to mislead and the unthinkable can happen, deeply upsetting the established order. The time for making contingency plans is now.
Russia and the European balance of power
An effective European response to the dangerous challenge from Russia ought to be an old-fashioned carrot and stick policy; the former being a recognition of Russia’s role as a global power with legitimate security interests, and the latter – credible defense.
Productivity is no free lunch
Europe is worried about low and declining productivity growth. Most politicians and experts have a simple solution: more high-tech investments and more education, especially for young people. But it is questionable whether this proposed fix is realistic or will bring about the desired outcome. The educational visions that...
Europe weighs its options to deal with troubled banks
European banks are in bad shape, and shareholders and bondholders are feeling the heat. With governments and regulators still groping for a solution, various options have bubbled to the surface. Summary <i>Three main responses have been proposed to Europe’s banking crisis: 1) more stringent regulation and ...
Renzi’s tinkering with jobs shows a changed mood in Europe
Prime Minister Matteo Renzi promised to turn Italy inside out, jump-start economic growth and reduce unemployment. But during almost two years in office, he has introduced only one significant economic reform, the so-called “Jobs Act.” The outcome has been mixed, and certainly below expectations. This does not mean Mr. Renzi is on the wrong track. ...
Refugee crisis tarnishes EU’s ‘moral superpower’
European leaders have long known that the main danger posed by the refugee influx is political backlash. This threat was explicitly recognized by Guenther Oettinger, Germany’s representative to the European Commission, during a press conference on December 30, 2015. “The European Union has learned to overcome crises,” he said. “But the number of unstable or populis...
Global trends: Europe’s weak spots ready to become new crises
Europe’s leaders have failed to solve the structural problems revealed by the crisis of 2008. Nor have they grappled with issues that have emerged in recent years. Examples include high public debt, the stock market bubble and distorted risk perceptions caused by the eurozone’s artificially low interest rates. For now, the situation has stabilized. Financial market...
Global trends: 2016 and 2017 will set Putin’s future
The outlook for Russia this year is more complex and harder to predict than at any point since President Vladimir Putin took power 16 years ago. Mr. Putin has ruthlessly ratcheted up the stakes in his drive to ensure that Russia is once again recognized as a great power with a voice in global affairs that cannot be ignored. The coming 12 to 18 months will be decisi...