European Central Bank
Macron and the German project
After Brexit, the European Union is composed of two sorts of countries – those willing to recognize German leadership, and those reluctant to do so. With the project of an ever-closer union now defunct, the EU’s internal debate has shifted to what Germany wants and how much it is willing to compromise. A lot depends on the position of France and its new president.
Opinion: The day Europe goes bankrupt
You may not be able to see it, but Europe’s biggest economies have piled up enormous amounts of pension debt. The European Central Bank’s policy of target credits and quantitative easing has only made things worse. With politicians seemingly determined not to notice, a systemic implosion may be inevitable.
The future of euroskepticism
While Europe’s populist parties identify the euro as the root of most evils, exiting the common currency won’t solve their country’s economic woes – in fact, the solutions they propose will probably make them worse. Voters have recognized this. But anti-immigration sentiment remains a powerful weapon in their arsenal, and Brussels seems unwilling to take the necessary measures to address it.
GIS Dossier: The strangely resilient euro
The euro has been remarkably stable during its 15-year existence as a major currency. That has not always been a good thing for the European economy. But the real concerns for the single currency hinge on politics and survival.
The twilight of a European dream
As Washington threatens to slap economic sanctions on the countries that it believes weaken their currencies, reaping unfair advantages in trade with the United States, eurozone exporters, especially Germany, may find themselves in trouble. The root cause of the dilemma, though, is the fact that from its inception the common currency has been misused by politicians.
Italy’s 50-year bond: an ill omen?
What’s not to like about Italy’s first-ever 50-year bond? October’s brilliantly successful sale may set the template for other eurozone governments. But investors should take note that it was far from a vote of confidence in Europe’s financial and economic prospects.
Italy’s referendum and the specter of instability
On December 4, Italians will go to the polls in a referendum on amending their constitution. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has said he will resign if the changes are rejected. A win for the opposition could be seen as a populist turn for this highly indebted country, bringing instability domestically and uncertainty about the fate of the eurozone.
QE has failed. What comes next?
Eurozone economies have been subjected to expansionary monetary policy for almost five years, and the easy-money approach has failed to jump-start demand and ignite growth. As central bankers begin to face this reality, they may have to choose between shoring up government indebtedness and letting banks go bust, or giving bankers a chance to operate and letting governments default. Which will they choose?
Central banks and corporate bonds
The latest scheme to have the European Central Bank buy corporate bonds is unlikely to turn quantitative easing into an effective stimulus policy. But there may other motivations at work. As a camouflaged bailout for big European banks and a bureaucratic carrot to slow corporate flight, expanded debt purchases make sense to policy makers in Brussels and Frankfurt.