European Commission | Geopolitical Intelligence Services

The UK is leaving the EU, not Europe

17.07.2017

Brexit will offer the European Union and the United Kingdom the chance to put themselves back on track. The UK will no longer be seen as just one of 28 member states, while the EU can reestablish itself as a tool for collective action. However, this outcome will require flexibility from both sides. For now, a “hard Brexit” scenario is unlikely.

Dr. Uwe Nerlich

DEFENSE

Self-destruction by arrogance and hypocrisy

EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn in Ankara

11.07.2017

Turkey-bashing remains a favorite sport in the European Union, as shown by the two latest resolutions approved by the European Parliament on July 6. For short-term gain, politicians are needlessly alienating the EU's most important strategic partner to the south and east.

Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

ECONOMY

Scenarios for Europe

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker

23.12.2016

Europe’s basic problem is a lack of leadership. In 2017 it is unlikely to solve the root problems at the heart of its malaise: excessive regulation, a lack of competition and innovation, weakening internal cohesion and an inability to address crises efficiently. A new generation of politicians may emerge that pushes for more market-driven solutions, but it will take several more years for them to be able to implement their vision, if at all.

Prince Michael of Liechtenstein

ECONOMY

Refugee crisis tarnishes EU’s ‘moral superpower’

Malmo, Nov. 12, 2015: Sweden begins border checks to control migrant inflow (source: dpa)

15.02.2016

European leaders have long known that the main danger posed by the refugee influx is political backlash. This threat was explicitly recognized by Guenther Oettinger, Germany’s representative to the European Commission, during a press conference on December 30, 2015. “The European Union has learned to overcome crises,” he said. “But the number of unstable or populis...

Professor Stefan Hedlund

DEFENSE

Global trends: Europe’s weak spots ready to become new crises

Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 23, 2015: Mario Draghi (L), president of the European Central Bank, speaks in a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum (source: dpa)

29.01.2016

Europe’s leaders have failed to solve the structural problems revealed by the crisis of 2008. Nor have they grappled with issues that have emerged in recent years. Examples include high public debt, the stock market bubble and distorted risk perceptions caused by the eurozone’s artificially low interest rates. For now, the situation has stabilized. Financial market...

Professor Enrico Colombatto

ECONOMY

EU faces dilemmas over Hungary’s nuclear deal with Russia

Moscow, 14 Jan. 14, 2014: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) reached a deal on the Paks nuclear power plant modernization that may bend EU’s procurement rules (source: dpa)

05.01.2016

Hungary is officially upbeat about its agreement with Russia to expand the Paks-2 nuclear plant. But behind the hurrah-optimism of Prime Minister Viktor Orban and government officials, the 12 billion euro contract with Rosatom is encountering stiff resistance at home and abroad, writes GIS guest expert Peter Juhasz. Summary ...

Peter Juhasz

POLITICS

Let’s play make-believe: Hollande and France’s ‘security pact’

Paris, Nov. 19, 2015: French President Francois Hollande greets Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo at a ceremony after 130 people were killed and hundreds injured in a series of terrorist attacks (source: dpa)

22.12.2015

After the deadly terrorist attacks in Paris on November 13, French President Francois Hollande was quick to announce that his new centrepiece policy would be a ‘security pact,’ which will take priority over the European ‘stability pact.’ The strategy’s prospects of success for creating greater security in France look bleak. However, there may also have been politic...

Dr. Emmanuel Martin

ECONOMY

EU regulators target transfer pricing but real aim may be fiscal control

Brussels, Oct. 21, 2015: EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager argues that special tax breaks granted to Starbucks in the Netherlands and Fiat Chrysler in Luxembourg were illegal (source: dpa)

24.11.2015

The European Commission’s crackdown last month on tax privileges for multinational corporations could be part of a bigger power play. The stakes could be much higher than preserving the autonomy of national tax authorities. Summary <i>European Union Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager is demanding...

Professor Enrico Colombatto

ECONOMY

Proposed fiscal board may widen political rifts in EU

Strasbourg, France, Oct. 27, 2015: European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker hopes to win back public opinion by transferring still more power to ‘Eurocrats’ (source: dpa)

11.11.2015

The European Commission announced in October that it is creating a new agency tasked with helping member governments draft and manage their budgetary policies. At the same time, it asked a study group to examine the possibility of introducing a European guarantee on bank deposits in the eurozone. Summary <i&g...

Professor Enrico Colombatto

ECONOMY

Eurozone’s road to political union looks like a mirage

France and Germany are putting forth radical visions of a European federal state, but each of a very different kind (source: dpa)

16.10.2015

It is commonly argued that at its heart, the European Union’s Economic and Monetary Union is a political project. Many therefore claim that its difficulties stem from a lack of political union, since EU officials have offered no coherent view on how to achieve one. Paris and Berlin both have ideas, but they ignore the fact that giving greater powers to Brussels is ...

Dr. Michael Wohlgemuth

ECONOMY