Opinion: The day Europe goes bankrupt
You may not be able to see it, but Europe’s biggest economies have piled up enormous amounts of pension debt. The European Central Bank’s policy of target credits and quantitative easing has only made things worse. With politicians seemingly determined not to notice, a systemic implosion may be inevitable.
The future of euroskepticism
While Europe’s populist parties identify the euro as the root of most evils, exiting the common currency won’t solve their country’s economic woes – in fact, the solutions they propose will probably make them worse. Voters have recognized this. But anti-immigration sentiment remains a powerful weapon in their arsenal, and Brussels seems unwilling to take the necessary measures to address it.
Opinion: EU-60 summit evades disaster and reform
The European Union avoided embarrassment at its 60th anniversary reunion thanks to British Prime Minister Theresa May, who tactfully stayed away before signing her divorce papers. But with the bloc facing tough choices about its future course, its leaders merely raised their champagne glasses. The EU fiddled at the Rome summit while its citizens did a slow burn.
GIS Dossier: The strangely resilient euro
The euro has been remarkably stable during its 15-year existence as a major currency. That has not always been a good thing for the European economy. But the real concerns for the single currency hinge on politics and survival.
Roads out of Rome
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker came up with an uninspiring set of scenarios in his latest White Paper. But the debate it kicks off, to be continued at the Rome Summit on March 25, could present a real chance to reorganize the European Union and make it more competitive.
The United Kingdom’s new positioning
British Prime Minister Theresa May is the first head of government to visit President Donald Trump after he assumed office. Her visit is significant in many aspects, especially in the context of Brexit and new policy orientations in the United States.
Will the European Union survive until 2025? Three scenarios
The crisis-stricken European Union may disintegrate in a decade, or reinvent and invigorate itself. The most plausible scenario, however, is a pragmatic downsizing: Brussels will abandon its overreaching ambition of ever-closer union and focus on programs that actually benefit EU residents.
The MPS bailout and the future of EU banking
Italian authorities failed to save the historic bank using the European Union’s bail-in rules, so they applied to bail it out. The EU allowed the move, even though it was clear there was no real systemic risk. The turnaround stems from protectionist and anti-competitive attitudes. These will prevail in the near future, to the detriment of taxpayers.
Global Outlook 2017: Merkel and the myth of German hegemony
Among the leaders of the world’s biggest liberal democracies, it seems Angela Merkel is the last woman standing. Some have claimed that will make her the leader of the free world and Germany Europe’s hegemon. Such claims are greatly exaggerated. There will be significant limitations to both Germany and Ms. Merkel’s room for maneuver in Europe and globally in the coming year.
Global Outlook 2017: False hope in Ukraine
The Ukrainian government and its international supporters are beaming with confidence that the country is finally turning the corner. While the economy may have bottomed out, there is still plenty of room for worry. As long as the political elites continue to put personal enrichment before transparent governance, the odds are against a rapid rebound. And without a strong economic recovery, another violent uprising could be in the cards.