Expert View supplement GIS’s in-depth reports with incisive opinion. Written by top GIS experts, sometimes challenging and always thought-provoking, these brief commentaries provide an informed viewpoint on crucial geopolitical issues.
Europe stands to be the biggest loser of the INF Treaty’s ending
The U.S. has announced officially that it walks away from the 1987 treaty banning intermediate- and shorter-range nuclear weapons, removing a cornerstone of the existing arms control system. The chances of it being replaced with a better, multilateral agreement involving China and a handful of other nuclear powers appear to be slim at this point.
Kim Watch: ‘Our nukes should be handed to the next generation intact’
U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a face-to-face summit with North Korea’s dictator because he hoped against hope that Kim Jong-un could somehow be persuaded to give up his stockpile of nuclear weapons and stop ballistic missile development programs. Now, back at home, the dictator is busy assuring his cadre and public that he will not allow any of it.
Germans expect soft Brexit but want EU to be uncompromising
Warning to London: recent polls reveal that Germans remain committed to the European Union and are concerned about political uncertainty, but they expect Berlin to remain tough on the terms of the UK’s separation
Kim Watch: North Koreans have a new father
North Korea’s political philosophy makes the leader the “father” of the nation – and Kim Jong-un expects to be loved, obeyed and revered by North Koreans as if he were their biological father. Now, a new hit song is encouraging them to do just that.
The Friendship Bridge misnomer
China and North Korea have long ceased being true friends and allies. Beijing, just as Washington, is at a loss for how to stop the North Korean leader’s nuclear brinkmanship. The Chinese government wants the country to be seen abroad as a great new power, equal to the U.S. in dealing with the Korean Peninsula issue. But the reality is harsh. Over seven decades, the only policy tool that China has finessed to calm Pyongyang is paying money to the Kim family. In return, Pyongyang insults Beijing whenever its leader gets in a fit, and it embarrasses China abroad. No money means no talk.
Cuba in transition
Cuba will get a new leader in April, after President Raul Castro hands over the presidency to First Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel. As the country tentatively introduces decentralizing reforms and embraces globalization, the new leadership will have to answer the question of how much freedom it can allow while retaining a tight political and economic grip over the country.
Venezuela’s bond default
Venezuela failed to pay last month $1.1 billion in interest due on three different government bonds. China’s state-controlled banks are the largest holders of Venezuelan government debt, sitting on more than $60 billion of the $143 billion total. Aside from creating a tense situation in the world of international finance, the default adds to the crushing economic, humanitarian and political crisis Venezuela is going through.
Debate: What China’s new Silk Road means for Europe
In a debate last month in Warsaw, politicians, bankers and businessmen considered the implications for Europe of China's Belt and Road Initiative – likely to be Eurasia's largest infrastructure project in this century. It is both an economic opportunity and a portent of growing Chinese preeminence on the continent.
How the United States can limit illegal immigration from El Salvador
The flow of illegal migrants and criminal gangs from El Salvador into U.S. cities can only be contained when Washington helps the country address its huge problem of unemployed and uneducated youths.