Failed coup transforms Turkey’s geopolitics

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin
Sept. 4, 2016: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit in China. Turkey’s advances toward Russia could jeopardize its NATO membership (source: dpa)
  • Turkey’s post-coup actions raise questions about its commitment to NATO
  • Erdogan has undermined the military, breaking the bond between army and state
  • Ankara’s foreign policy will continue to be guided by domestic politics
  • Internal instability will increase, while long-standing foreign alliances will fray

The failed coup in Turkey this July and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s reaction to it have drastically changed the country’s geopolitical outlook. There are a new set of domestic and international factors driving this change. The military has lost many of its most experienced leaders and sectarian tensions are set to rise. President Erdogan will continue his opportunistic foreign policy, pulling Turkey closer to Russia and further straining relations with the United States. Stresses on domestic stability are set to grow, while Turkey’s ties with NATO will weaken.

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