2018 Global Outlook: World trade
After a surprisingly good 2017, world trade should do even better this year. But that doesn’t mean that Europe and the United States can afford to be passive. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which will turn most of Asia into a privileged trade zone, demands a choice – either join the initiative or promote free trade outside it. For now, the West is doing neither.
2018 Global Outlook: The Trump presidency, Year Two
After a year in the White House, Donald Trump is suffering as much from his own erratic personality as from the burden of office. Foreign policy in the traditional, institutional sense has ceased to exist, and the way the president and Congress operate suggests there will be little room for maneouver once domestic troubles start to mount. Miscalculation and overreaction become increasingly likely as the global arena grows more precarious.
Debate: What China’s new Silk Road means for Europe
In a debate last month in Warsaw, politicians, bankers and businessmen considered the implications for Europe of China's Belt and Road Initiative – likely to be Eurasia's largest infrastructure project in this century. It is both an economic opportunity and a portent of growing Chinese preeminence on the continent.
GIS Dossier: From Mao to Xi, China’s quest for growth
China’s explosive growth has made it the emerging hegemon of Asia and one of the most powerful engines of the global economy. But if the giant country fails to meet the challenges that lay ahead, it may also cause a lot of turmoil in the 21st century.
GIS Dossier: Global trade and protectionism
According to the economic law of comparative advantage, the whole world has benefited from the enormous expansion of international trade since 1980. But over the past decade, few countries have acted like they believe it. GIS experts look at the roots and likely future course of protectionism’s global resurgence.
Are we heading toward trade wars?
Sluggish international trade in recent years has given reasons to worry about globalization. The value of trade involving the G20 group of countries leveled off in 2010 and has been in decline since mid-2014. Many blame Donald Trump and the new vogue for protectionism, but that is an oversimplification.
U.S. trade options in Asia
President Donald Trump’s pledge to crack down on countries that have large trade surpluses with the U.S. has created a lot deal of uncertainty in Asia. Will the new administration enforce current laws and seek bilateral deals, or will it take a more punitive, protectionist stance? Washington’s choice – and how its partners respond – may determine whether the U.S. keeps its leading role in Asia or gets marginalized.
Opinion: Trumponomics is worth a second look
President Donald Trump’s economic program is perceived by many as a recipe for disaster. But its most questionable, protectionist elements – such as the border adjustment tax – are unlikely to be implemented or could bring completely unexpected benefits. And the new administration’s plans for infrastructure and deregulation should bring positive effects.
Asian powers ponder options as America turns inward
With internationalism on the retreat in the United States and Europe, Asia’s two biggest powers find themselves on the spot. Both China and India have spoken in defense of globalization and a multilateral, rules-based order. But neither appears ready to fill the vacuum left by receding U.S. power.
Return of shale? Scenarios for the Trump administration
The first shipments of what promises to be a flood of shale gas from the United States have reached Asia. These exports could dramatically increase U.S. political leverage in the region. Most importantly, they have the potential to forge new bonds with China in a time of stress and help check Russian expansion.