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Picture of a massive rally in Hong Kong

Opinion: A possible scenario for Hong Kong

The turmoil in Hong Kong does not pose a direct threat to the power and survival of the party-state in China. Beijing must be frustrated by the Hong Kong government’s inability to pacify the protesters and has issued some dire warnings to them. Using the Hong Kong garrison of the People’s Liberation Army or armed police from the mainland, however, to “restore public order” in the Special Administrative Region does not appear to be in the cards, though it is a likely scenario if violence escalates.

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