Power vacuums and ungovernable spaces are being created right across the Middle East. They are the result of the Arab Spring revolutions, the collapse of peace talks and the changing role of the United States. GIS expert, Bernard Siman analyses the threats.

VACUUMS sums up a theme for our times in the Middle East in one word.

Vacuums have resolved themselves in the past through armed conflict triggered through a single event. The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914 was such an event acting as a detonator which ignited the First World War.

Today’s Middle East has parallels driven by three key dynamics which are the fundamental causes of vacuums develo...

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 Bernard Siman
The American withdrawal of combat troops by the end of 2011 may leave sizeable parts of Iraq’s borders and air space effectively ungovernable. Iraqi armed forces chief of staff Babak Zebari recently said that his forces will only be able have complete control after 2020
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