Global trends: players and paths for Islamic State (part 1)

Istanbul, Jan. 12, 2016: Turkish police guard the Sultanahmet district where a suicide bomber killed 10 people; Daesh (also called Islamic State) is believed to be responsible for the attack (source: dpa)
Istanbul, Jan. 12, 2016: Turkish police guard the Sultanahmet district where a suicide bomber killed 10 people; Daesh (also called Islamic State) is believed to be responsible for the attack (source: dpa)

There is little doubt that Islamic State is here to stay as a headache in the Middle East. The only question is how serious a headache for local and foreign powers it will be by mid-2017. Even under the best-case scenario, its clandestine cells will remain active in eastern and northern Syria and in the Sunni areas of Iraq.

<i>This report is part of GIS’s “Global Trends” series, which aims to forecast big-picture scenarios that will shape the world this year and beyond.</i>

Islamic State (IS, or Daesh, as it is known in Arabic) may also remain capable of mounting or inspiring small-scale terrorist operations in Europe and the United States through...

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