Democracy in crisis
The liberal democratic order has been losing its appeal for years as politics has come to depend more on loyalty to a leader than adherence to ideology. As opposing sides coalesce around increasing the power of the state, they focus on attacking personalities rather than policies. This has led to polarization, a loss of democratic ideals and the rise of populism.
Domestic considerations drive American politics
Domestic concerns alone propelled Donald Trump to victory in the U.S. presidential elections and they will increasingly guide Washington’s policies internationally. Recognizing this is key to understanding how the U.S.’s role in the world will change.
Hillary’s first 100 days
The first 100 days has been a metric of presidential effectiveness in the United States since Franklin D. Roosevelt began the first of four terms in 1933. FDR’s successors have had a hard time living up to his standard. Now Hillary Clinton’s first 100 days are coming into view. They will hinge on finding a way to work with Congress after one of the most divisive elections in recent memory.
Trump or Clinton? For Africa, there’s not much difference
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s campaigns are both missing an Africa strategy. But with Chinese activity in Africa ramping up, the next leader of the free world may have to come up with one quickly. Expect a President Trump to forcefully challenge Chinese strategy in the continent, while a President Clinton would follow a more traditional approach.
Beyond hegemony: the next U.S. president and Latin America
Whatever Donald Trump might think, the U.S. can no longer throw its weight around in Latin America. One by-product of the region’s democratic transformation and economic boom of the early 2000s is a new sense of self-assertiveness. Barack Obama and George W. Bush recognized this fact, and the next U.S. president will have to accept it, too.
The West’s leadership crisis as a Russian trauma
Russians are not gleeful about the leadership vacuum in the West. There is a sense that the failure of Pax Americana has left them bereft and vulnerable. Faced with a decaying imperial center, peripheral states such as Russia or Turkey have had to assemble their own, “surrogate” order from the debris.
U.S. policy up in the air on North Korea
North Korea's nuclear arsenal remains a top concern of the United States. Yet few aspects of American foreign policy are more uncertain than the tack the next president will take with Pyongyang. The Bush and Obama administrations have tried carrots and sticks; neither has worked.
What happened to you, America?
Nothing in this year’s U.S. presidential election has gone according to plan. Party establishments are bending and may break under pressure of an American voter revolt. For the first time since World War II, Washington’s role as the leader and linchpin of world order is in question. It is time for Europe to step up.
Trump’s ‘great’ America or Clinton’s village: the U.S. transition
On January 21, 2017, the 45th President of the United States will be inaugurated. Changes of administration in Washington differ from those in other democracies. If the Republicans win the White House, up to 5,000 senior officials will be replaced; the outgoing Democrats will become something of a “government in exile.” But next year will be even more of a departur...
The West must consider humane solutions to refugee crisis
Horrific photographs of starving children from the besieged Syrian town of Madaya are the latest defining images from the tormented country. Conflict there has claimed the lives of more than 260,000 people – 55,000 in 2015 alone. However, peace in Syria is unlikely in the near future. The deluge of humans flowing out of that country – and many other troubled region...