Argentina: Macri yet to score on economic reform
The government of Argentina can chalk up its first modest successes in improving a badly distorted economy. But the peso’s recent bad run against the dollar has signaled there are limitations to President Macri’s play it by ear, gradualist approach to reforms.
The end of the Greek bailout program: What comes next?
As the Greek bailout program reaches its scheduled end in August 2018, the country’s government and international community must decide what comes next. Some reforms have been implemented, and the public budget even runs a surplus. But the economy remains vulnerable. The EU could dig in and insist Athens reimburses at least part of its debt, or it could cancel it altogether. The latter option is preferable – and more likely – but the EU will have to be ready to stand up to some tough criticism about the precedent it would set.
Global Outlook 2017: False hope in Ukraine
The Ukrainian government and its international supporters are beaming with confidence that the country is finally turning the corner. While the economy may have bottomed out, there is still plenty of room for worry. As long as the political elites continue to put personal enrichment before transparent governance, the odds are against a rapid rebound. And without a strong economic recovery, another violent uprising could be in the cards.
Mozambique looks for a way out of crises
Mozambique, once held up as a model country for the way it ushered in peace and reconciliation after a long civil war, now faces a new round of potential crises – from a huge corruption scandal, to fiscal instability, to a possible return of civil war. However, with new international investors in its natural resources and an incoming U.S. administration, momentum will likely be found to resolve these issues.
Debt, violence risk instability for Mozambique
The revelation of billions of dollars in secret debt and a resurgence of violence have plunged Mozambique into a two-pronged crisis that puts President Filipe Nyusi between a rock and a hard place. With the country’s renewed instability threatening a slide into civil war, Mr. Nyusi is under pressure to work out a lasting peace with his party’s political rivals. It may be the only way to lure international donors and investors back.
Euro crisis: time for a rerun?
After Greece obtained its third bailout last summer, Europe turned its attention to other crises. But it would be naive to conclude that the sovereign debt crisis is over. The Greek drama is still far from a happy ending; in Portugal and Spain, fragile left-wing governments may want to abandon austerity and roll back reforms; France has declared a state of economic...
Global Trends: China tightens up as its economy falters
If you thought that the crisis facing China’s equity and currency markets – so evident last summer – was over, renewed turmoil in the first weeks of 2016 shows that there is still a long way to go, writes GIS Guest Expert Nick Fielding. Government support has helped slow the price collapse, and there have even been some scattered signs of stabilization in real esta...
IMF puts itself in a fix as it bends rules to bail out Ukraine
On December 18, 2015, the government of Ukraine announced it had no intention of honoring a $3 billion Eurobond loan owed to Russia that would mature on December 20. Given the cross-default clause written into that bond, under British law, this was a momentous decision. It gave the Kremlin the right to have Ukraine declared in sovereign default, which would have pr...