International Monetary Fund | Geopolitical Intelligence Services

Is a European Monetary Fund needed?

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel hold a press conference at an EU summit

28.11.2017

In December, the European Commission will publish its proposal to establish a European Monetary Fund. From a strictly economic point of view, such a fund is not needed. There are plenty of political reasons, however, with Germany, France and the EC all pursuing their own contradictory goals. That makes it likely that an EMF will eventually be created, even though it will amount to little more than the existing European Stability Mechanism.

Dr. Michael Wohlgemuth

ECONOMY

GIS Dossier: Shinzo Abe’s Japan

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe grins after winning Japan’s October 2017 snap election

25.10.2017

Shinzo Abe is not popular, but this consummate political insider has become just the second prime minister in Japan’s history to win three general elections. He managed this feat by skillfully juggling factions in the dominant Liberal Democratic Party, stirring life into Japan’s stagnant economy, and pledging vigorous leadership in the face of a nuclear-armed Korea. Can Mr. Abe turn around a country widely seen to be in irreversible decline?

GIS Feature

POLITICS

Euro crisis: time for a rerun?

Athens, July 22, 2015: Greeks protest against austerity measures; three months into 2016, there is still no agreement on extremely unpopular pension cuts that have yet to win approval from lawmakers (source: dpa)

24.03.2016

After Greece obtained its third bailout last summer, Europe turned its attention to other crises. But it would be naive to conclude that the sovereign debt crisis is over. The Greek drama is still far from a happy ending; in Portugal and Spain, fragile left-wing governments may want to abandon austerity and roll back reforms; France has declared a state of economic...

Dr. Michael Wohlgemuth

ECONOMY

Exchange rates: a race to the bottom

29.02.2016

Trying to predict how exchange rates will evolve during the rest of the year is a futile exercise. For different reasons, the world’s major central banks are all doing their best to weaken their own currencies. Summary <i>In the United States, the Federal Reserve is having second thoughts about resetting ...

Professor Enrico Colombatto

ECONOMY

IMF puts itself in a fix as it bends rules to bail out Ukraine

Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 21, 2016: Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko after Ukraine refused to repay its debt to Russia (source: dpa)

03.02.2016

On December 18, 2015, the government of Ukraine announced it had no intention of honoring a $3 billion Eurobond loan owed to Russia that would mature on December 20. Given the cross-default clause written into that bond, under British law, this was a momentous decision. It gave the Kremlin the right to have Ukraine declared in sovereign default, which would have pr...

Professor Stefan Hedlund

DEFENSE

Global trends: terror and transition in sub-Saharan Africa

Nairobi, July 22, 2015: Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta (C) arrives at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit taking place for the first time in sub-Saharan Africa (source: dpa)

21.01.2016

Sub-Saharan Africa is poised for another year of fast economic growth in 2016. But countries of the region must contend with falling commodity prices, an upsurge in terrorism and a widening gulf between aging leaders and newly assertive urban voters. <i>This report is part of GIS’s “Global Trends” series, which aims...

Dr. Jaime Nogueira Pinto

POLITICS

Yuan’s slow rise could mean trouble for Western economies

Washington, Nov. 30, 2015: Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, announces that China’s currency is eligible to join the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket (source: dpa)

16.12.2015

At the end of November, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that from October 2016 the Chinese yuan will be part of the basket of currencies that defines the Special Drawing Right (SDR), the accounting unit the organisation uses to carry out financial operations. The immediate practical effects will be minor. Being part of a unit of account means all bu...

Professor Enrico Colombatto

ECONOMY

Capricious leader stymies growth in drought-struck Gambia

Washington DC, August, 2014: President of the Gambia Yahya Jammeh and First Lady Zineb Jammeh at the US-Africa Leaders Summit (source: dpa)

12.11.2015

External shocks and structural problems are threatening the viability of the Gambia, the smallest economy on the African mainland. While the government has implemented a few corrective measures recommended by the International Monetary Fund, the outlook remains decidedly gloomy. Summary <i>The country’s un...

Teresa Nogueira Pinto

POLITICS

First glimmer of hope for Donbas deal as guns fall silent

Piski, Donetsk region, 2015: both sides are pulling back heavy weapons and the daily firefights and artillery exchange has all but stopped (source: dpa)

03.11.2015

Russia’s entry into the Syrian conflict has fundamentally altered its stand-off with the United States and Europe. Until Russia launched its first air strikes in Syria on September 30, the crisis in Ukraine was near the top of the international agenda. At the time, some still feared an escalation of the military conflict, or that Russia and Nato could sleepwalk int...

Professor Stefan Hedlund

DEFENSE

Saudi Arabia tests solo role as King Salman sets up succession

King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia redrew the line of succession, placing it in the hands of the younger generation of royals and created two councils that propose broad lines of policy to the king (photo: dpa)

30.09.2015

Saudi Arabia needs to make far-reaching domestic and foreign policy changes, and the measures announced in April 2015 by King Salman mark the first steps in that direction. The recent appointment of two crown princes signals a generational shift, and the creation of two Royal Councils for foreign and economic policy point to professionalism and transparency in gove...

Dr. Udo Steinbach

POLITICS