GIS Dossier: Turkey and the Middle East
Ankara is still groping for the right policy mix in dealing with complex challenges to Turkey’s vital interests in the Middle East, North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea region. A paradigm change, however, diverting its geopolitical attention away from Europe and NATO and toward its historic neighborhood, is already evident.
VIDEO: 2018 Global Outlook: Four dangerous dynamics in the Middle East | GIS: Global Trends Video Reports
Early 2018 finds the Middle East at a singular moment in its history. At a time when regional political and security structures are crumbling new, transactional alliances are emerging, which creates a formidable dynamic for armed conflict.
Geopolitics and Saudi Arabia’s cash flow
The Gulf states have not sufficiently adjusted their spending patterns to lower income from oil exports. Burdened by persistent and growing budget deficits, they are increasingly hard pressed to fend off geopolitical rivals such as Iran. The trend has serious and lasting consequences for the Middle East and North Africa.
Erdogan’s ‘new Turkey’ resembles an old stereotype
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now unleashed, having consolidated full power over Turkey’s ruling party, parliament and the judiciary. After sweeping away the remnants of democracy and the Kemalist state, he has reached the point of no return. Which raises a simple question: what happened to the “new Turkey” – the assertive, prosperous Islamic powerhouse – that he promised?
Opinion: ISIS attacks in Tehran – why now?
After years of fighting and murdering lesser foes, the Sunni Arab ISIS (Daesh) terror group has turned against Shia Iran, which it considers its religious and political archenemy in the Middle East. As Iran blames Saudi Arabia for the recent bloody ISIS attack in Tehran, a direct confrontation between these two regional powers has become a possibility, however not too likely, with immense potential consequences.
Iran gas an option for Europe as Russia leaves energy gap
The strategic energy ellipse is one of the hottest geopolitical regions in the world - home to vast reserves of oil and gas and stretching from western Siberia to the Arabian Peninsula. Critically, Iran and Iraq are at its centre. As Russia eases out of the picture as the main provider of energy to Europe – several others are looking to take its place. The axing of...
Energy prices link America’s Asian pivot and Middle East instability
United States foreign policy in the Middle East and the Far East is becoming increasingly interlinked by the price of energy. Oil prices are the trigger to instability spreading from the Middle East to America’s major trading partners - China and Japan - and Asia’s other markets. Energy prices will play a vital role in crisis management as perception grows that the...
Ending the conspiracy of silence over global religious persecution
Thousands are dying in conflicts across the globe because of their religious beliefs. But politicians and some church leaders in the West remain silent about this religious persecution of people of all faiths for fear of causing offence or being accused of religious intolerance. Christians, Muslims and secularists have to stand up and be counted to end this oppress...
The impact, role and influence of America’s emerging new global policy
America is developing a new global role which will see it shift from a global policeman to a fixer among the world’s trouble spots. The US is evolving into a less polarised position and is taking the centre ground as it re-balances its position on global issues and acts more as a mediator to resolve difficulties which threaten world peace. ...