Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps | Geopolitical Intelligence Services

2019 Global Outlook: The Fertile Crescent

Syrian government troops escort residents of Idlib Province through a control point

09.01.2019

The single most important development in the Middle East has been the end of Syria’s civil war, which was unequivocally won by the Baath regime. Even the hammer blows of a determined religious opposition could not destroy the post-World War I system that created Syria, Iraq and Jordan as Arab states. But with the announced U.S. withdrawal from Syria and the victory of the Assad regime and its Russian and Iranian sponsors, the way could be cleared for an explosive confrontation with Israel.

Professor Dr. Amatzia Baram

DEFENSE

Opinion: A road map for peace in the Middle East

A picture showing Israeli armor positioned on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, near Israel’s border with Syria

30.11.2018

Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Israel are all vying for supremacy in the Middle East through direct confrontation and proxy wars. This may trigger an all-out conflict with dire consequences for the region and for Europe. Reversing the logic of war and replacing it with cooperation is difficult but possible, as all the involved parties stand to gain from it.

Dr. Udo Steinbach

POLITICS

Iraq at a crucial moment (Part 2)

Map of Iraq’s administrative and ethnic divisions

27.11.2018

Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi’s to-do list reads like Mission Impossible. Staff his cabinet with honest officials; rebuild war-torn Sunni areas in the north; placate an angry Shia south that is desperately short of water and power; deal with Kurdish demands; reintegrate Iranian-backed militias into civilian life; balance carefully between Iran and the U.S. He must do all this without a secure parliamentary majority or even a solid support base. Mr. Abdul Mahdi’s position as an honest broker gives him great strength, but if he fails, Iraq could become Libya.

Professor Dr. Amatzia Baram

DEFENSE

Iraq at a crucial moment (Part 1)

Sadrist rally during Iraq’s 2018 parliamentary election campaign

26.11.2018

Iraq’s new prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, was reportedly hand-picked at meeting in Beirut by the leaders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hezbollah. Yet the man they chose is far from a radical. Close examination of Mr. Abdul Mahdi’s career shows him to be an experienced, honest and gutsy politician, friendly to the U.S. and hardly in Tehran’s pocket. The task he faces is gargantuan, but Mr. Abdul Mahdi has hidden strengths.

Professor Dr. Amatzia Baram

DEFENSE

Iran and Israel’s proxy war in Syria escalates

18.10.2018

The accidental downing of a Russian military plane by Syrian anti-missile defense, which coincided with Israeli air force jets’ presence in the area, highlights the danger of the increasingly open proxy warfare between Israel and Iran. The number of parties involved – Israel, Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah – points to the risk of the drawn-out Syrian conflict exploding into full-fledged regional war.

Ambassador Zvi Mazel

DEFENSE

Israel and Hezbollah: The war nobody wants may be about to happen

Iranian Revolutionary Guards train with a Shahab-2 missile battery

21.02.2018

It may already be too late to avoid another armed conflict in the Middle East. Iran has systematically upgraded Hezbollah’s ability to strike at strategic and civilian targets deep inside Israel. Increasingly, the only viable option for Israel’s military to neutralize this threat is another invasion of southern Lebanon.

Ambassador Zvi Mazel

DEFENSE

Opinion: How Kirkuk could trigger a new major war

Iraqi Army column rolls into the oil fields near Kirkuk after Kurdish forces withdrew

10.11.2017

Iraqi Kurdistan’s disastrous decision to press ahead with an independence referendum has allowed the Iraqi federal government to reassert control over Kirkuk and its vital oil fields. But an even bigger consequence of Baghdad’s resurgence could be a potential conflict with its erstwhile sponsor, Tehran. Any such confrontation would quickly become regional in scope, bringing in Saudi Arabia, the United States and possibly Israel.

Bernard Siman

ECONOMY