Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
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Near-term scenarios for the U.S.-Iran competition
Reports that the recent U.S. and Iranian attacks against each other are leading to war significantly exaggerate the situation. Each country’s moves are part of long-standing strategies focused on influencing the other’s behavior. As such, similar activities can be expected in the near future. A military conflict, however, would benefit neither side and both can be expected to try to avoid one.
Leadership Challenges 2020: Iran’s decision makers
With the recent focus on Iran-West tensions, it is worth considering who exactly the decision makers are in Iran’s highly complex structure of power and whom the current system benefits. While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds tremendous sway, he is not all-powerful. Understanding the roles of the various players ...
Iran’s aspirations for hegemony and its terrorist activities
The U.S.’s killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani is a huge blow to the Iranian regime, and Washington had valid reasons for making the move. Though many fear the repercussions, the U.S. could not shy away from self-defense for such reasons. And for now, it looks likely that Iran will ...
2019 Global Outlook: The Fertile Crescent
The single most important development in the Middle East has been the end of Syria’s civil war, which was unequivocally won by the Baath regime. Even the hammer blows of a determined religious opposition could not destroy the post-World War I system that created Syria, Iraq and Jordan as Arab ...
Opinion: A road map for peace in the Middle East
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Israel are all vying for supremacy in the Middle East through direct confrontation and proxy wars. This may trigger an all-out conflict with dire consequences for the region and for Europe. Reversing the logic of war and replacing it with cooperation is difficult but ...
