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If we want to know what will happen to Islamic State (ISIS) after the death of its first “caliph” and the loss of Mosul and Raqqa, we must first understand what it is. There is not one ISIS, but at least four. Each will require different handling once the caliphate is shattered and scatters.
Professor Dr. Amatzia Baram
As the battle for Mosul concludes, the battle for Raqqa is entering its
initial phase. From a military perspective, the fall of these twin bastions of
Daesh was never in doubt. But tactical victories can only be turned into
long-term strategic gains if a political process is put in place. Otherwise, we
will see a “son of Daesh” and worse in Syria and Iraq.
Tension between the Mediterranean Sea’s northern and southern shores is nothing new. In fact, it is ancient, dating back well before 1830, when France colonised Algeria in an effort to suppress the piracy, slave trade and smuggling that had infested those waters for centuries, and also to satisfy commercial interests.