Joseph Kabila will not be moved
For long-serving presidents in sub-Saharan Africa, there are few incentives to step down. That applies to President Joseph Kabila in the Democratic Republic of Congo, who has managed to extend his term beyond the constitutional limits. The country has been in a deep crisis since 2015, and conditions are primed to deteriorate in 2018. Even if long-promised elections do take place, they will hardly mark the beginning of a new era.
GIS Dossier: Autumn of the patriarchs
In many parts of the world, the outlook for political stability in 2018 will depend on aging, often long-serving politicians. Some are senescent leaders trying to manage a generational transition, others have caught their second wind and are bracing for a long run. Here is a short list of rulers who are losing their grip, handling tricky successions, or building their legacies with a late burst of vigor. They are a key human element in geopolitics.
GIS Dossier: Sub-Saharan Africa
The list of challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa is long and daunting. Political instability and violence have led to immense migration flows that countries on three continents are struggling to contain. These problems have exacerbated weather-related catastrophes like famine, creating a vicious circle. Yet, the region has plenty of potential. Can it overcome its hurdles? This edition of GIS Dossier surveys the predictions from our experts on this troubled region.
Crisis in the DRC
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been one of Africa’s most troubled states since it won independence from Belgium in 1960. Perhaps fittingly, its latest crisis was defused by a last-minute agreement on New Year’s Eve between President Joseph Kabila and the opposition. Will it last?
Global Outlook 2017: Sub-Saharan Africa
Political instability will be the norm for sub-Saharan Africa in 2017. Crises will range from rocky political transitions to mass protests, electoral violence and – in the worst case – even genocide. The region faces these challenges at a time when realpolitik is replacing liberalism.
Political crises flare up in sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing a defining moment as leadership crises coincide with a variety of global challenges, including economic slowdowns, terrorism and the effects of climate change. To deal with these challenges, countries must undergo deep reforms and political change. The short-term effect, in most cases, will probably be an upsurge in violence and repression.
Global trends: terror and transition in sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is poised for another year of fast economic growth in 2016. But countries of the region must contend with falling commodity prices, an upsurge in terrorism and a widening gulf between aging leaders and newly assertive urban voters. <i>This report is part of GIS’s “Global Trends” series, which aims...
Africa’s most enlightened despot faces test of third term in Rwanda
As incumbent leaders seek to extend their time in power beyond legal limits, ‘third-termism’ or ‘constitutional coups’ have become a hot topic in African politics. In Rwanda, where leadership changes have always been accompanied by ethnic strife and violence, the constitution is being changed to allow a third term to President Paul Kagame. The country’s brutal hist...
Crisis in Eastern Congo reaches a crossroads
The conflict in Eastern Congo between government forces and the M23 is reaching a turning point. Neighbouring countries are set to deploy forces inside the country unless hostilities are ended. And while President Joseph Kabila agreed to send a government delegation to meet M23 representatives after the rebels took a key city, few are expecting an early end to the ...
The Great War of Africa – the deadliest in the continent’s modern history
The Great Lakes of Africa conjure up images of great scenic beauty and abundant wildlife, but in recent years the region, in particular eastern Congo, has been the fighting ground for rival rebel militia groups, many of whom have come over the border from Rwanda in the wake of the 1994 genocide. No solution is yet in sight, but countries in the region are pushing f...