Libya’s looming threat to Egypt

Benghazi, June 2014: The Tobruk government, based on the House of Representatives, is defended by General Khalifa Haftar, who has vowed to rid Libya of "terrorist groups" (source: dpa)

General info

Location

Egypt

Date

7 March 2016

Contains

Report Scenarios

Tags

Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi army Barack Obama civil war Daesh guerrilla Islamic State Muammar Qaddafi Muslim Brotherhood Russian terrorist Tuareg unemployment United Nations

Author

Ambassador Zvi Mazel

Zvi Mazel is a former Israeli diplomat. He served as deputy director general in Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in charge of African Affairs from 1993 to 1996. He also served as Israel’s ambassador to Romania from 1989 to 1992, ...

Egypt, which has yet to quell Islamic terror in northern Sinai, is now facing a similar threat from Libya – a country that has not had a functioning central government since 2011, when NATO air strikes helped bring about the fall of Muammar Qaddafi.

No thought was given to how to set up a new, democratic regime to replace the dictator, who for decades had kept together the country’s motley tribes and regions. Soon, a full-blown civil war was underway. As ethnic and tribal fighting tore the country apart, Islamist groups – especially Islamic State, or Daesh – moved in and began developing terrorist bases. Libya is now perceived as a threat by its neighbors, first and foremost by Egypt,...

Contents

Leaky border
Civil war
Daesh expansion
International pressure
Islamist springboard
Weighing intervention
Slim chances

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Egypt is in a quandary. Defeating Islamic State could potentially pacify its long border, but renewed fighting would send its way another flood of refugees – with militants hidden among them