- Assessments of Brexit’s economic costs or benefits for the UK are uncertain
- If the UK opts to leave, the rules for its trade with the EU will change
- Brussels may not accept an amicable divorce for fear of contagion
Even the Greek drama last summer has not featured as much uncertainty and confusion as is evident now, days before the British referendum on the European Union membership.
The United Kingdom may or may not remain in the EU. It is equally uncertain what will happen afterwards – both with the UK and the EU. No one can tell what economic and political disruptions are in store; there are innumerable “ifs” and “trade-offs” that condition both possible outcomes. But some scenarios of post-Brexit UK-EU relations and of the future of the EU are already becoming discernible.