The armed conflict in eastern Ukraine has moved into an apparent limbo. The ceasefire agreement that was negotiated at Minsk in February (2015) has broken down. Heavy weapons have been brought back into the prohibited zone and heavy shelling has been resumed. While Russia looks to be gearing up for a full on assault, this may just be a distraction to keep the West guessing while it slowly suffocates Ukraine.

BOTH SIDES took the ceasefire as an opportunity to rest, regroup and rearm. This has generated substantial fears that large-scale combat operations may be about to be resumed. The main focus of attention is on Mariupol. Situated on th...

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Professor Stefan Hedlund
Major Russian reinforcements have been spotted in the area, both inside Donbass and on Russian territory adjacent to the region.
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