Brazilian politics in turmoil as general election nears
With Brazil’s political class totally discredited and its key player, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, serving a 12-year jail sentence, all bets are off for the October general election. Assuming the incarcerated Mr. Lula doesn’t find a legal loophole allowing him to run, the current front-runner is a former Army captain, Jair Bolsano, with a far-right agenda. Brazilians are so angry that nearly half of them favor a return to military rule, under certain circumstances – but for now, that still seems inconceivable.
GIS Dossier: Brazil’s crisis
Corruption is nothing new in Latin America, but the sheer scale and brazenness of graft among Brazil’s political and business elites has caused a powerful public backlash. While huge protests against abuse have galvanized the country’s civil society, the crisis has also revealed the strength of its democratic institutions and respect for due process.
Brazil’s embattled president is still not in the clear
Brazilian President Michel Temer beat a corruption indictment by using federal funds and political favors to by off Congress. But the price of his political survival may have been the sacrifice of his fiscal reform program. And Mr. Temer is not out of the woods yet.
Brazil: Corruption allegations engulf Temer
Until recently, President Michel Temer seemed an anomaly in Brazilian politics: he went unscathed by the Petrobras scandal and had scored several political victories despite low popularity. Now, all that has changed after a bombshell audio recording allegedly revealed his involvement in several instances of bribery. Isolated and under extreme pressure, Mr. Temer has vowed to fight on. If he does, it will likely drag out Brazil's political and economic crisis for months or even years.
Global Outlook 2017: Brazil’s improving odds of pulling itself out of crisis
Brazil’s President Michel Temer has received a strong political shot in the arm with the February election of his loyalists to key positions in the legislature. Even if Mr. Temer’s ambitious reform agenda becomes watered down during the inevitable bargaining with the opposition parties, the measures, if passed, should suffice to put the country on track for moderate growth.
Global Outlook 2017: Latin America’s Trump problem
Geography will have a big impact on Latin America in the coming year: the closer a country is to the United States, the worse off it will be. What President Donald Trump does will shape developments in the region, as will the prices of key commodities. If Mr. Trump decides on collaboration instead of unilateral demands, however, the region could see positive developments.