Middle East politics

The region, one of the cradles of civilization, is going through a turbulent period of historic realignment. Its powers are vying for political, military, economic and religious dominance with local players and outside actors. Armed conflicts, mainly civil wars, are challenging the permanence of states whose borders were drawn arbitrarily in the early 20th century, after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire.
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An uneasy truce in the Gulf
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt officially ended their diplomatic and economic boycott of Qatar. Riyadh’s attempt to get in the Biden administration’s good graces has led to a truce between strategic U.S. allies in the Gulf, but Qatar has made only vague promises to change policies that its ...


Iran’s choices in the Caucasus
The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, recently halted by a Russia-backed cease-fire, exposed a new balance of foreign interests in the region. Iran has faced a difficult choice: whether to back a Shia Muslim Azerbaijan that is also receiving support from Israel and Turkey. The prospect of Israeli access to Iran’s northern ...


Libya: A war in metamorphosis
In October, the key domestic actors in Libya’s conflict resumed political dialogue. Three factors have helped this process: the military setback suffered by the warlord ruling in the east, Khalifa Haftar; the prolonged cease-fire, and the mounting street protests as the country sinks into chaos.


The New Middle East – an Israeli perspective
The Abraham Accords, a wide-ranging normalization program recently adopted by Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, could develop into a broader alliance in the Middle East. If Saudi Arabia decides to resume ties with the Israeli state, Palestinians will have an additional incentive to return to the negotiating table.

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More Disruptions

Expanding state
A trend toward increased government influence in economies and personal life is curbing growth, and freedom, in many Western countries. The outsized role of government results in misplaced incentives, overregulation – which restrains markets and competition – and irresponsible budgetary ...

Russia resurgent
Russia’s incursion in Ukraine raised alarm about a new Cold War, deepened with the intervention in Syria and allegations of meddling in U.S. elections. But the Kremlin’s new assertiveness is largely defensive, while Ukraine’s emergence as a nation-state undermines Moscow’s ...