Middle East politics
The region, one of the cradles of civilization, is going through a turbulent period of historic realignment. Its powers are vying for political, military, economic and religious dominance with local players and outside actors. Armed conflicts, mainly civil wars, are challenging the permanence of states whose borders were drawn arbitrarily in the early 20th century, after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire.
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Lebanon’s dilemma
In October 2019, after two weeks of protests against endemic corruption, widespread unemployment and Iranian influence, Lebanon’s prime minister tendered his resignation. His successor must now pull back the economy from the brink of collapse. However, the coronavirus crisis could prevent him from taking the necessary measures, condemning the country to further instability.
The Red Sea becomes a dangerous flash point
Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen have come together to create a council meant, among other aims, to prevent the escalation of conflicts in the Red Sea basin. However, the intricate net of regional conflicts could prevent the organization from collaborating effectively, and a spark in ...
Near-term scenarios for the U.S.-Iran competition
Reports that the recent U.S. and Iranian attacks against each other are leading to war significantly exaggerate the situation. Each country’s moves are part of long-standing strategies focused on influencing the other’s behavior. As such, similar activities can be expected in the near future. A military conflict, however, would benefit ...
Oman’s new ruler pledges to fulfill his predecessor’s legacy
The peaceful power transition that followed the death of Oman’s long-reigning sultan, Qaboos bin Said, is a testimony to the stability of the Al Said regime, especially in such a volatile region. However, the new sultan, Haitham bin Tariq, will face significant challenges if he wants to turn the country ...
Iran: Scenarios for deep reform or regime change
Starting last November, Iranians have been taking to the streets to voice their dissatisfaction with the country’s leadership. Over the past decade, several such movements have sprung up, only to ultimately be stamped out. Achieving regime change, or even significant reform, would entail depriving powerful, privileged groups of tremendous benefits. ...
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More Disruptions
Expanding state
A trend toward increased government influence in economies and personal life is curbing growth, and freedom, in many Western countries. The outsized role of government results in misplaced incentives, overregulation – which restrains markets and competition – and irresponsible budgetary ...
Russia resurgent
Russia’s incursion in Ukraine raised alarm about a new Cold War, deepened with the intervention in Syria and allegations of meddling in U.S. elections. But the Kremlin’s new assertiveness is largely defensive, while Ukraine’s emergence as a nation-state undermines Moscow’s ...
