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The U.S. and China: The rivalry escalates
The principle of “the Thucydides trap” posits that when one global power is set to supersede another, war is inevitable. While China is gradually catching up with the United States on the world stage, an all-out war is unlikely. It is more probable that the two countries will use every political tool available to keep each other in check. Limited armed clashes could also occur if a crisis escalates sharply.
Sweden rebuilds its military force, maybe
Sweden’s defense budget is to grow by about one third in the next three years, as the country reverses its decades-long policies and aims to rebuild its once impressive territorial defense capabilities. The plan hardly surprises in today’s neo-Cold War context, but given the scope and nature of the challenges ...
Europe’s strategic future in global competition, Part 2
With responsibility for European security devolving onto individual countries, an old question from the 1950s has resurfaced: What about Germany? One proposed answer is the revival of a European Army, which would allow the German military to be strengthened in a politically unthreatening fashion. However, this project is out of ...
Europe’s strategic future in global competition, Part 1
Defense does not rank these days very highly in Europe’s political discourse. Yet with multilateral structures increasingly ineffective and the attitude of the United States ever more ambivalent, its European partners need to find their own solutions. Simply waiting out a period of global turbulence is not an option.
Mediation helps start a fragile transition in Sudan
The fall of President Omar al-Bashir in Sudan can be seen as the demise of just another African strongman. Yet in a large state divided along complex ethnic, religious and political lines, his personalized tyranny made political stability possible. Now that is gone and an internationally mediated transition agreement is ...
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