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New strategic vision offers hope of stability for Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira has shown a pragmatic and strategic approach to its future (photo: dpa)

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Location

Guinea-Bissau

Date

27 April 2015

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Author

Carlota Ahrens Teixeira

Carlota Ahrens Teixeira is a geopolitical and foreign policy analyst who specialises in African affairs. She is an international relations consultant at Gaporsul Ltd, a business and political intelligence advisory company. She also collaborates with Kyron Consultants to provide business ...

Guinea-Bissau, one of the world’s poorest countries, could be emerging from its turbulent past. A new government and a new president are working together with the main opposition party to bring stability and reforms. There are enormous signs of hope that the first steps of the reform agenda will lead to international backing.

YEARS of political turmoil and violence could be left behind and 2015 could signal a turning point for Guinea-Bissau with its new Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira leading a new government.

Mr Simoes Pereira was elected in April 2014 and new President Jose Mario Vaz in May.

The new government was promised, at...

Contents

Coup mastermind
Party cohesion
Political legitimacy
Strategic approach
Power sharing
Good relations
International reputation
Smuggling charges
Right track
Visible measures
Most likely scenarios in 2015
Positive steps
Less likely scenarios during 2015
Most likely medium-long term scenarios
Regional tensions
Less likely medium-long term scenarios

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Economically, Guinea-Bissau has always been among the world’s poorest countries. The 2012 state coup made things worse. It is ranked 177 out of 187 countries according to the 2014 United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Index, and around half its 1.7 million population live in extreme poverty