Opinion: El Salvador’s new president faces an uphill struggle
In June 2019, Nayib Bukele will take office as El Salvador’s next president. A fresh face from a small party, Mr. Bukele is focused on rooting out corruption. For its part, the U.S. wants him to tackle migration and is threatening to cut off aid. With a sluggish economy dependent on remittances, the new president will be hard-pressed to solve the problems that are chasing Salvadorans from their country.
Opinion: Why they migrate
Discussions of migration from Central America into the United States tend to lump the principal countries of origin – El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras – into a single subregion, the Northern Triangle. While similarities between the three states make it convenient to treat them as a unit, the practice can also be misleading. Different push factors operate in each country, and without taking these distinctions into account, no amount of international aid is likely to reduce the migrant flow.
Opinion: The wrong response to the Caravan
United States President Donald Trump has insinuated the migrant caravan heading from Central America to the U.S. constitutes an invasion and has deployed some 5,000 troops at the border to stop it. Now, the president has threatened to rescind aid to the migrants’ countries of origin. American aid programs are built to address the region’s terrible crime and lack of employment opportunities – the very reasons so many people are leaving their homes and heading for the U.S. in the first place.
GIS Dossier: How demography shapes geopolitics
Though demographics has always had an important effect on geopolitics, big changes in population structure have become more frequent and had a wider impact as the world has become more globalized. In East Asia, populations are aging, while in Africa they are growing younger. Huge waves of migration are causing political upheaval. In this edition of the GIS Dossier, we review our experts’ analysis of demographic trends across the globe and their predictions for how they could shift geopolitical tides.
How the United States can limit illegal immigration from El Salvador
The flow of illegal migrants and criminal gangs from El Salvador into U.S. cities can only be contained when Washington helps the country address its huge problem of unemployed and uneducated youths.
Opinion: Corruption in Guatemala and why Central America won’t go away
If U.S. President Donald Trump really wants to stop illegal immigration, he would do well to look at its causes, like violence in the Northern Triangle countries of Central America. However, a one-size-fits-all approach will not solve the problem. Each country has its own specific difficulties. In Guatemala, it is corruption. The U.S. and the international community can play a key role in fighting corruption, which could reduce violence and therefore migration – but they must stop sending mixed signals.
GIS Dossier: Mexico
Mexico’s relationship with the United States was driving change in the country long before it became the focus of President Donald Trump. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) dramatically altered its economy, allowing it to become a key provider of manufacturing and agricultural goods to the U.S. But Mexico is also a gateway for drug trafficking to its northern neighbor, fueling corruption, organized crime and widespread violence. The latest GIS Dossier surveys the analyses and predictions from our experts on this critical Latin American country.
Central America under Trump’s shadow
The Trump administration’s policies will have a huge impact on Central America – even if they are not intended to. A trade dispute with Mexico could end up benefitting the region. But tighter border security measures or cutting of funding for improving democratic institutions will prove disastrous.
Global Outlook 2017: Latin America’s Trump problem
Geography will have a big impact on Latin America in the coming year: the closer a country is to the United States, the worse off it will be. What President Donald Trump does will shape developments in the region, as will the prices of key commodities. If Mr. Trump decides on collaboration instead of unilateral demands, however, the region could see positive developments.
The Northern Triangle in Central America
Central America’s Northern Triangle states – Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador – have become a thoroughfare for illegal migration and drug smuggling to the United States. The U.S. is trying to stop this tide by funding police and judicial reform and setting up watchdog agencies. Progress in this diverse and poorly governed region has been mixed.