Opinion: How not to resolve the Venezuelan crisis
Venezuela’s constitutional coup has cleared the way from President Nicolas Maduro to suppress the opposition. But with the economy in tatters, the death toll in street protests rising, and the officer corps on the verge of splintering, the government may be more open to international mediation than first appears. The only way this works, however, is if the United States stays out.
Venezuela: a violent stalemate
The government of President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela is under pressure from all sides: growing discontent at home, increasing calls for change from the international community and shrinking revenue. Still, it refuses to budge, and is meeting resistance with violence. The killing of a musician could be a turning point – but will a solution be found before violence spills over into other parts of the region?
GIS Dossier: Venezuela lives on the edge
The world's richest country in oil reserves is on the verge of becoming a failed state. After more than a half-century of social harmony funded by oil revenue, a socialist variant of caudillismo has run the country into the ground. Yet political changes are blocked by a determined military junta, awash in drug money and cemented by the threat of U.S. indictments. How long can Venezuela stay on the brink?
China’s stealth expansion in Latin America
Donald Trump's short tenure in the White House has already enhanced China's low-profile but pervasive influence in Latin America. While Chinese trade penetration has slowed, investment and infrastructure lending are expanding at a brisk pace. Perhaps most helpful to Beijing has been Mr. Trump's general indifference to the region, though some generals in his national security apparatus are beginning to fret.
Endgame in Venezuela
A financial noose is tightening around Venezuela's ruling party. Sovereign default is now imminent and U.S. court judgments have exposed the country's international assets to seizure. Without international mediation, President Nicolas Maduro will have to turn to the military for a potentially bloody crackdown.
Global Outlook 2017: Venezuela
Venezuela is back from the brink. Over the past six months, Nicolas Maduro has outsmarted the opposition, used a bond swap to stave off default, and coopted the top military brass to prevent a coup. If the president can only find a way to revive oil output, he may be a good bet to stay in office through 2018.
Syria’s future: the losers and winners
For all the confusion about Syria’s civil war, there’s no doubt about the big loser – the Syrian people. But nearly every regional power that has intervened to advance its own interests has also paid a heavy price, as has the European Union, a not-so-innocent bystander. For now, the most likely winners are the former Cold War antagonists, the United States and Russ...
Global Trends: back to the future in the Middle East
Middle Eastern disputes have again become flash points for global rivalries – a trend that will accelerate and intensify this year. Shia-Sunni tensions remain central, but they are no longer the sole driver of regional conflict. An evolving face-off between Russia and Europe over the eastern Mediterranean, along with competition for dominance of the great trade and...
Global trends: Latin America seeks growth as leaders straggle
Latin America has reached an inflection point. Recent developments suggest that parts of the region will make significant economic strides over the next few years. However, its two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are stuck in the doldrums, and their politics may be in even worse shape. <i>This report is par...
Ethnic strife continues to stymie Myanmar’s economic potential
Myanmar, also known as Burma, has seen decades of ethnic conflict and corrupt military rule stifle its considerable economic prospects. With an advantageous geographic location, abundant natural resources and ample labor force, Myanmar has the ingredients needed to become a regional economic power. A win by pro-democracy groups in last November’s elections offers a...