Elections, coups, international relations, social movements, emerging states and influencers. Here find forecasts and potential scenarios for political trends from Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) global experts.
Tensions in the Balkans reach fever pitch
Ethnic, nationalist and border disputes are heating up in the Balkans. European political crises and uncertainty surrounding the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump have raised the stakes. Three scenarios are possible: the West could maintain its strong influence in the region; it could pull back, creating instability and leaving a vacuum for Russia to fill; or borders in the Balkans will be reshaped once again, potentially violently.
GIS Dossier: The strangely resilient euro
The euro has been remarkably stable during its 15-year existence as a major currency. That has not always been a good thing for the European economy. But the real concerns for the single currency hinge on politics and survival.
Russia’s deeper involvement in Libya changes the game in the Middle East
It seems Western powers have again been caught off guard by Russia’s moves in the Middle East. This time, Moscow is stepping up cooperation with Libya, an old ally. Closer ties with the Tobruk government could give it a pretext to strengthen its presence there, and even potentially to establish military bases as in Syria. That would open a new can of worms for Europe and NATO.
Opinion: Military situation heats up on China’s perimeter
The main threat to world peace can be found not in Eastern Europe or the Middle East, but along a 6,000-mile stretch of land and sea on Asia’s eastern and southern rim. As China’s push for access to the sea runs up against a picket line of U.S. allies and bases, potential conflicts are brewing.
African migration and the EU’s response
Migration from Africa to Europe is here to stay. Though the EU has undertaken many measures to stem the tide, demographic and economic realities ensure that those measures will be insufficient. African economies cannot absorb their growing workforce, and in fact benefit from diasporas in Europe. Putting up fences will only make the problem worse.
Frailty, thy name is Europe
The EU is in profound crisis, caused by years of shallow leadership. Only a radical change in its leaders’ performance can salvage the European project now. Managing structural problems instead of resolving them, trying to shame the rebellious public into accepting business as usual and blaming the United States for Europe’s dangerously weak security position is a road to self-destruction.
China won’t save global climate protection policies
China has made big strides in greening its energy sector. But while some hope this means the country can become a new leader in the fight against global climate change, Beijing’s goals are different. The moves it is making now are aimed at putting China in an advantageous geopolitical position, especially in terms of trade. Moreover, its momentum on the green energy front may not be sustainable.
Argentina’s Macri in the crosshairs
Argentina’s Mauricio Macri spent his first 16 months as president playing whack-a-mole with a host of problems – including a faltering economy, an incompetent and often corrupt bureaucracy, and rising public anger at utility price hikes. Now, with parliamentary elections looming, he needs to come up with a strategy to avoid becoming a lame duck for the rest of his term.
Opinion: In Belarus, the master tactician counts on luck
In recent weeks, open protests have been held in Minsk and Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko has met with a member of the independent media. But Belarus’s authoritarian leader has not changed his tune. Instead, he is putting on a show in hopes of gaining much-needed funding from the West now that Russia has turned off the taps. The survival of his regime depends on this gambit.
Kim Jong-nam murder challenges China
For decades, China has put up with the antics of the Kim family in Pyongyang to keep the Korean peninsula divided. But the spectacular murder of dictator Kim Jong-un’s half brother may have stretched Beijing’s patience to the breaking point.