Elections, coups, international relations, social movements, emerging states and influencers. Here find forecasts and potential scenarios for political trends from Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) global experts.
Terrorism in Europe and the clash of civilizations
Europe is under attack from global terrorism. Europeans are in shock, and no solution is in sight. The problem is globalized and asymmetrical to the strengths of the West; victory requires a close examination of global terrorist networks’ origins, and the asymmetries from which they derive their power. Of course, terrorism is not a new phenomenon. But what is new today is its global dimension. For about a decade, such terrorism has laid siege to European society. Just as in the United States after September 11, 2001, so today in Europe, the debate over this danger has begun. The Europeans do not shoot from the hip like those American cowboys did, but their response is no less regrettable.
Brazil’s economy starts to rebound as political crisis festers
As President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment nears its final stage, Brazil remains stuck in a deep political crisis. Citizens do not trust their current leaders, including the acting president, but legal hurdles make an early election unlikely. The first signs of an economic rebound, however, brings hope for change in the political sphere as well.
Beijing’s dilemma in the South China Sea
Beijing is not going to back down after losing an international court case over its territorial claim to the South China Sea. The Chinese authorities have a long menu of policy options, including military escalation, economic pressure and diplomacy. Given the risks involved, they will probably be in no hurry to make a choice.
Mexico: Pena Nieto papers over security crisis
In nearly four years, President Enrique Pena Nieto has been unable to tackle Mexico’s difficulties with organized and violent crime. His shift of focus to economic matters only papers over the problem, rather than addressing its root cause: institutional weakness. The country’s perpetual security crisis looks set to continue.
The future of Chinese influence in Latin America
Between 2000 and 2012, Chinese demand for commodities fueled economic expansion in Latin America and underwrote expensive populist measures that kept left-leaning governments in power. Then, in 2012, the Chinese economy began to slow and the commodities boom collapsed, destabilizing many of those same governments. How these new dynamics affect China’s role in the region as a trading partner, investor and geopolitical actor will have a huge impact on Latin America in the coming years.
The fraying of sanctions
Two years on, there is no obvious endgame for Western sanctions against Ukraine. Some European Union leaders are already calling for normalized relations with Russia, even as fighting erupted in Donbas. But a “dirty deal” would carry a hefty long-term cost.
Bad loans are not the worst threat to Italian banks
Italian banks suffer from poor management and a high ratio of nonperforming loans, but except for a handful of the most troubled institutions, their shareholders and bondholders have no reason to worry. Unless further losses emerge as a consequence of a public debt crisis, a catastrophe is not in sight.
Russian elections: regions on the rise
The outcome of Russia’s parliamentary elections this September is predictable. In the near future, however, their results may have serious implications for how Russia's political regime functions under President Vladimir Putin. It's not what happens on election day that is important – it's what happens afterward.
India, a nation where few pay income tax
A low tax base, poor tax compliance and ineffective, often abusive tax administration not only have constrained Indian governments’ revenue, but also hampered growth and Indian society’s capacity to hold the government accountable. The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has chosen to focus on the Goods and Services Tax with the aim of simplifying indirect taxes rather than to tackle the direct tax structure.
Africa’s poaching wars
Poaching in Africa has intensified in recent years, leaving less than half a million elephants on the continent. The flip side of this ecological tragedy is a multibillion-dollar business for criminal and terrorist groups. That makes poaching a geopolitical problem requiring an international response.