Elections, coups, international relations, social movements, emerging states and influencers. Here find forecasts and potential scenarios for political trends from Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) global experts.
Demographic change stymies growth not just in Japan
The short history of economic growth has made a handful of Western nations, later joined by Japan, remarkably rich and powerful. Until recently, it seemed that the fast-growing developing countries led by China were poised to catch up with the advanced economies by the middle of this century. Now, the macroeconomic data suggest that they may grow old before they get rich.
Mongolia’s June elections and their impact
Fed up with economic and political drift, Mongolian voters handed the center-left opposition a crushing victory in the June 29 general election. What the new government does with its constitutional majority is another question. To keep the sputtering economy afloat, it will have to strike shrewd bargains with powerful neighbors and creditors.
The Northern Triangle in Central America
Central America’s Northern Triangle states – Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador – have become a thoroughfare for illegal migration and drug smuggling to the United States. The U.S. is trying to stop this tide by funding police and judicial reform and setting up watchdog agencies. Progress in this diverse and poorly governed region has been mixed.
Essay: Royal families and monarchies in the 21st century
Far from being relics of the past, modern monarchies continue to provide valuable services to 21st century societies. Royal families, for all the occasional foibles of their members, have retained popular affection in part because they help uphold constitutional principles and provide a sense of nationhood and cohesion in times of need.
NATO summit: the media is the message
NATO’s message of unity and reassurance at the Warsaw summit may end up ringing hollow. The alliance has done little to address its real vulnerability to substate warfare, while its eastern buildup perfectly suits Russia’s internal political needs. Meanwhile, the lack of strategy for dialogue and coordinating the efforts of NATO’s lead nations may undermine Europe’s collective security.
The falling yuan: implications for China’s economy
In July 2016, the yuan dropped to its lowest rate versus the dollar since 2010. What does this development mean, and what can we expect for the future, given Chinese ambitions to present the yuan as a strong and reliable international currency? In order to make any predictions, it is necessary to know what the authorities in Beijing will do to address the current problems of the economy as a whole.
History is back in the Balkans
The great game is afoot once again in the Western Balkans, with some of the usual players (Russia, Turkey) and some surprising new entrants (China, Saudi Arabia). The best chance of preventing a potentially blooding redrawing of borders in the region could depend on political decisions in Belgrade.
China’s slowdown could bring environmental benefits
Beijing is eager to use China’s economic slowdown as a means to improve the country’s environment. The slower growth gives the government maneuverability to address some of the country’s most pressing environmental problems. Nevertheless, doubts remain as to whether authorities are truly committed to green issues or are merely saving face. Lacking rapid economic growth to appease the populace, the government must address the other concerns, such as the environment.
Debt, violence risk instability for Mozambique
The revelation of billions of dollars in secret debt and a resurgence of violence have plunged Mozambique into a two-pronged crisis that puts President Filipe Nyusi between a rock and a hard place. With the country’s renewed instability threatening a slide into civil war, Mr. Nyusi is under pressure to work out a lasting peace with his party’s political rivals. It may be the only way to lure international donors and investors back.
NATO summit responds to Russia’s hybrid cold war
Russia has developed a series of sophisticated techniques to test NATO’s boundaries. To prevent cyber- and info war from escalating into a full-blown conflict, the alliance must boost the capabilities of its frontline states and revamp its nuclear doctrine.