Elections, coups, international relations, social movements, emerging states and influencers. Here find forecasts and potential scenarios for political trends from Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) global experts.
How domestic instability shapes the power play over Myanmar
Competing forces are pulling Myanmar in different directions. China is deeply involved in the country's politics and economy, while the West is withdrawing after several years of engagement. ASEAN, Japan and India are interested in business opportunities and countering Chinese influence. How these factors affect Myanmar will be determined by the country's internal politics, including the interplay between the military and civilian authorities, and whether it can peacefully resolve its ethnic conflicts.
Opinion: The EU meets its perfect storm
Europe’s migration crisis is about to get worse – much worse. Efforts to interdict the migrant flow and funnel aid funds to the countries of origin will prove ineffective or counterproductive. The problem is less the size of the exodus than European leaders’ refusal to address its causes. We know what policies will work, but that knowledge is useless if politicians will not face facts.
How technology is shaping education in Latin America
Latin America’s education systems are notorious for their resistance to reform. But despite the bureaucracy and the unions, technology is driving huge changes that are raising quality, lowering prices and increasing access to education across the region. Computers and the internet will not solve all of Latin America’s education problems, but they will permanently change the sector for the better.
GIS Dossier: Autumn of the patriarchs
In many parts of the world, the outlook for political stability in 2018 will depend on aging, often long-serving politicians. Some are senescent leaders trying to manage a generational transition, others have caught their second wind and are bracing for a long run. Here is a short list of rulers who are losing their grip, handling tricky successions, or building their legacies with a late burst of vigor. They are a key human element in geopolitics.
Mugabe is out, but his power structure remains
Robert Mugabe lost Zimbabwe’s presidency to his former right-hand man Emmerson Mnangagwa in a coup prepared jointly by the military and one of the ruling party’s factions. The new ruling team is more focused on defending its power and privileges in the impoverished country than on addressing its profound problems.
Donald Trump and the end of American exceptionalism
For generations, United States policy has been based on the assumption that its adherence to universal principles would help it spread its values abroad. While this link between domestic and foreign policy has been weakening for some time, President Donald Trump has severed it completely. This has created an opening for China, and a difficult choice for Europe.
Opinion: New president, new prospects in Angola
Joao Lourenco, Angola’s new president and a long-time insider of its power structure, has taken decisive steps during his first 50 days in office to put the naturally endowed African country on a course to economic recovery, and possibly a political reorientation.
Japan’s growing nuclear dilemma
The security environment in East Asia is becoming increasingly unstable, with China rising, North Korea threatening nuclear war and the U.S. seemingly less willing to support allies. Japan is in a difficult predicament, with a constitution curtailing its military abilities and a public strongly against nuclear weapons. But the government wants to abolish those limits, and popular opinion might change once the nuclear arms race in East Asia accelerates.
Naftogaz: The keystone of reform in Ukraine
Naftogaz, the natural gas giant that is Ukraine’s largest taxpayer, is again in the news for the wrong reasons. The last two members of its independent supervisory board have resigned, indicating that vested interests have gained the upper hand over the reformist management team. What is happening at Naftogaz reflects a broader backlash in Ukraine – one that, if unchecked, could lead to a restoration of the old guard and Russian infuence.
Is a European Monetary Fund needed?
In December, the European Commission will publish its proposal to establish a European Monetary Fund. From a strictly economic point of view, such a fund is not needed. There are plenty of political reasons, however, with Germany, France and the EC all pursuing their own contradictory goals. That makes it likely that an EMF will eventually be created, even though it will amount to little more than the existing European Stability Mechanism.