Elections, coups, international relations, social movements, emerging states and influencers. Here find forecasts and potential scenarios for political trends from Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) global experts.
Swiss economic success: diversity as capital
Nothing seems to stop the prosperity of the Swiss economy. Its steady growth is seemingly impervious to the political turmoil in the EU, superpower tensions, the vagaries of world trade and even the overly muscular Swiss franc. Switzerland’s highly diverse economy and its unique political system together form an ecosystem that is amazingly productive and resilient. The question, however, is how long the Swiss can manage to shield their order from the globalized world’s homogenizing pressure.
The Gambia’s critical moment
Two years ago, The Gambia managed to oust a dictator through a democratic election. It has opened up politically and economically, but the benefits are dribbling in slowly. Now its president, Adama Barrow, must decide whether to honor an agreement to stay in power for only three years or to serve out his constitutionally guaranteed term of five years. Both options pose risks for this West African state just getting back on its feet.
Iran and the future of the nuclear deal
Since the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the government of President Hassan Rouhani has come under tremendous pressure from both internal and external forces. Now, Mr. Rouhani will have to maneuver to satisfy the hardliners and keep social discontent in check, while maintaining Iran’s regional clout and keeping the economy from tanking.
Libya and the Franco-Italian rivalry
In North Africa, France and Italy share vital national interests on migration, terrorism and energy. Yet profound differences on tackling these issues – rooted in history and leadership styles – has put them in direct competition, and even led to a diplomatic crisis earlier this year. Nowhere is the rivalry more visible than in Libya, where it is delaying a resolution to that country’s civil war.
Turkmenistan comes into focus
Long neglected by all but devoted regional specialists, Turkmenistan has recently begun to matter in international politics. The reason is a sharp drop in energy prices, which has turned the gas-rich country into an economic basket case, and the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. Both developments have Russian and Chinese policymakers concerned about their vital interests in Central Asia.
Opinion: Six lessons from Brexit
The United Kingdom and the European Union have drawn little benefit from the Brexit negotiations. It did not have to be this way. The leadership on both sides made critical mistakes that have put Europe in this pickle. As the process moves toward its next stage, the question is whether leaders can learn the lessons and take a more realistic stance. The future of both the EU and the UK depends on it.
Carlos Ghosn and the rigor of the Japanese state
The surprise arrest of Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is superficially a tale of personal greed and clashing corporate cultures. But drill deeper and the more significant takeaway is what the case reveals about the Japanese approach to law and the power of the state. That is why Mr. Ghosn’s fate could have an impact on Japan’s international standing and foreign investors.
GIS Dossier: Governance in Africa, the case of three countries
Three sub-Saharan African countries, all with decades-long, devastating civil wars behind them. Two are populous and large, well-endowed in natural riches, while one is a small, landlocked nation with no particular resources. Which one is Africa’s poster child of economic and developmental success today? This GIS Dossier examines why the longtime leaders of these three countries delivered such widely differing results for their societies.
India decides on force to break a pointless cycle
The latest round of fighting on the India-Pakistan border reveals a changed mood in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to order an air strike deep inside Pakistan in reprisal for a terrorist attack is evidence of a more muscular policy taking shape. If Mr. Modi is reelected in a few months, it can be assumed that India will be brandishing a bigger stick at its Western neighbor.