Brazilian politics in turmoil as general election nears
With Brazil’s political class totally discredited and its key player, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, serving a 12-year jail sentence, all bets are off for the October general election. Assuming the incarcerated Mr. Lula doesn’t find a legal loophole allowing him to run, the current front-runner is a former Army captain, Jair Bolsano, with a far-right agenda. Brazilians are so angry that nearly half of them favor a return to military rule, under certain circumstances – but for now, that still seems inconceivable.
Before leaping at the opportunity to question the results of Sunday's election in Turkey, politicians and media in Europe and the United States would do well to consider the basis of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's appeal. Until Western leaders take into account Turkey's emerging regional role and interests, they cannot hope to have any influence on its politics.
Egypt: Proud and jittery as El-Sisi begins second term
With the Middle East in turmoil, the Arab world’s most populous nation and its biggest army are nowhere to be found. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi believes the path to national greatness begins at home, with economic development – not foreign entanglements. But as trouble builds up in Egypt’s immediate neighborhood, Mr. El-Sisi may not be able to stay out.
Opinion: Venezuela nears the breaking point
What will happen to Venezuela after the government tries to steal an unconstitutional presidential election on May 20? Everything depends on the cohesion of the splintered opposition and the determination of the international community. If either fail, the Western hemisphere could be faced with its most severe humanitarian crisis in more than a decade.
Russia without Putin: A first approximation
Vladimir Putin is at the heart of Russia’s political system. But less and less of what is happening in the country depends on his personal vision and volition. The president looks increasingly disengaged, while his policy of confrontation with the West is a dead end. As the first outlines of a post-Putin order come into focus, it scarcely matters whether the president runs for another term. Even if he wins, the new era begins the day after the vote.
Navalny: The black hole of Russian politics
In just four years, Alexey Navalny has taken Russia's political scene by storm. From a complete unknown, he has risen to the first opposition figure who can be legitimately regarded as a possible alternative to Vladimir Putin. But beyond his flashy anti-corruption campaign, even close political observers have little idea what Mr. Navalny stands for. Many cannot shake the feeling that he enjoys a special tolerance from the authorities.
Russia’s 2018 elections: Why the Kremlin is running scared
The outcome of Russia’s presidential election in 2018 appears a foregone conclusion: President Vladimir Putin will remain in power. The issue is the cost of renewing his official mandate, as anger is growing among ordinary Russians at worsening economic conditions and the shameless enrichment of the ruling elite. Next year’s election campaign will offer the disaffected an opportunity to vent their frustration and protest in public. If things get nasty, Russia will not be the only country to feel the consequences.
Global Outlook 2017: Russia checklist
Russia enters 2017 with a sense of vague disquiet. With presidential elections a year away, not everyone is sure the “main candidate” will be Vladimir Putin. Concern is palpable inside the government and the security apparatus, as interest groups jockey for position.
Hillary’s first 100 days
The first 100 days has been a metric of presidential effectiveness in the United States since Franklin D. Roosevelt began the first of four terms in 1933. FDR’s successors have had a hard time living up to his standard. Now Hillary Clinton’s first 100 days are coming into view. They will hinge on finding a way to work with Congress after one of the most divisive elections in recent memory.
El-Sisi makes start on stabilising Egypt – with little help from US
After decades of failed dictatorships, Egypt is looking to President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi to make good on his pledge to steer the country towards economic progress through reforms. Ordinary people appear ready to trust him, perhaps because they see the former field marshal as their best chance to materially improve their lives, writes GIS guest expert Ambassador Zv...