Russia without Putin: A first approximation
Vladimir Putin is at the heart of Russia’s political system. But less and less of what is happening in the country depends on his personal vision and volition. The president looks increasingly disengaged, while his policy of confrontation with the West is a dead end. As the first outlines of a post-Putin order come into focus, it scarcely matters whether the president runs for another term. Even if he wins, the new era begins the day after the vote.
Navalny: The black hole of Russian politics
In just four years, Alexey Navalny has taken Russia's political scene by storm. From a complete unknown, he has risen to the first opposition figure who can be legitimately regarded as a possible alternative to Vladimir Putin. But beyond his flashy anti-corruption campaign, even close political observers have little idea what Mr. Navalny stands for. Many cannot shake the feeling that he enjoys a special tolerance from the authorities.
Russia’s 2018 elections: Why the Kremlin is running scared
The outcome of Russia’s presidential election in 2018 appears a foregone conclusion: President Vladimir Putin will remain in power. The issue is the cost of renewing his official mandate, as anger is growing among ordinary Russians at worsening economic conditions and the shameless enrichment of the ruling elite. Next year’s election campaign will offer the disaffected an opportunity to vent their frustration and protest in public. If things get nasty, Russia will not be the only country to feel the consequences.
Global Outlook 2017: Russia checklist
Russia enters 2017 with a sense of vague disquiet. With presidential elections a year away, not everyone is sure the “main candidate” will be Vladimir Putin. Concern is palpable inside the government and the security apparatus, as interest groups jockey for position.
Hillary’s first 100 days
The first 100 days has been a metric of presidential effectiveness in the United States since Franklin D. Roosevelt began the first of four terms in 1933. FDR’s successors have had a hard time living up to his standard. Now Hillary Clinton’s first 100 days are coming into view. They will hinge on finding a way to work with Congress after one of the most divisive elections in recent memory.
El-Sisi makes start on stabilising Egypt – with little help from US
After decades of failed dictatorships, Egypt is looking to President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi to make good on his pledge to steer the country towards economic progress through reforms. Ordinary people appear ready to trust him, perhaps because they see the former field marshal as their best chance to materially improve their lives, writes GIS guest expert Ambassador Zv...
Erdogan's presidential win brings hopes and fears to Turkey
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s new president, sealed his decisive win on promises of a strong Turkey ‘rising again from the ashes’. But his overwhelming support at the polls on August 10, 2014, has prompted fears among critics that, riding a wave of religiously conservative support, he will transform the secular republic into an increasingly authoritarian one. Prim...
Morsi - future Pharaoh or transitional figure?
President Mohamed Morsi is a figure the West finds hard to evaluate. But, there is only one Mr Morsi and he has only one policy - the West just does not understand what it is. This report looks at Egypt’s president, examines his commitment to the Muslim Brotherhood and considers what factors are motivating his policies. ...
Political tension after attempted coup in Guinea-Bissau
An attempted coup against Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior has been deterred but political tension persists in West Africa. It follows a disputed presidential election in Guinea-Bissau where there have been numerous coups in the last four years and where drug trafficking has become mixed with the military and politics. ...
Russian elections: Vladimir Putin's biggest test is defeating corruption
Russia is one of the most corrupt countries in the world and Vladimir Putin’s future will be decided on whether he can bring in reform to clean up the country. This single issue is more important than all his other election promises as it holds back Russia’s growth and the country’s investment climate - and unifies the disparate opposition. ...